Research On Mechanism Of China’s Low-carbon Industry Development

Basing on former research and combining with the status of industrial carbonemission in China, this research analyses the influencing factors of industrial carbonemission and tries to build the mechanism of low-carbon development mode forChina’s industry, aiming at providing a new perspective for policy making oflow-carbon transformation and development of China’s industry.The result of measurement and comparison of industrial carbon emission showsthat China’s industry belongs to high-carbon industry, industry is the main carbonemission sector and the provincial and industry difference of industrial carbonemission is significant. Basing on KAYA equation, this paper builds a mode withpanel data of China’s industrial carbon emission from28provinces and analyses theinfluencing factors. The result shows that output from industrial sector, high-carbonenergy structure focusing on coal, the industrial structure with high heavy industryproportion are the driving factors of China’s high carbon emission of industry, whileenergy efficiency referring to technology improvement of enterprises is playing anegative role in industrial carbon emission.On the basis of factor analysis, this paper builds low-carbon transformationmechanism as follows. The decoupling state analysis of China’s industrial carbonemission with the data from within industry and provincial level in the year of1998to2011shows that China’s industrial carbon emission should transfer from expansionnegative, weak decoupling to strong decoupling, that is absolute decoupling as thedirection of future development. Through emission reduction scenario analysis andenergy consumption prediction, this paper finds that the total amount of energy use inindustry of our country is in the transition period of increasing rapid growth torelatively low speed growth. The development of low-carbon industry requires tocontrol the industrial energy consumption growth, and to strengthen the policy ofenergy-saving and emission reduction, through which to maintain the total amount ofindustrial energy use and finally to reach the goal of making the industrial energygrowth decline. Through measuring production efficiency based on non-expectedoutputs, this paper finds that technology improvement is the main cause of promoting green production efficiency. So we can conclude that industrial energy efficiency canbe improved by technology progress, through which the transition mechanism fromthe decrease of energy intensity to emission intensity can be realized. Basing on thecombined analysis of industry influence and emission intensity, this paper dividesChina’s industrial sector into four categories, including the industry with smallindustrial influence coefficient and big emission intensity, the industry with smallindustrial influence coefficient but small emission intensity, the industry with bigindustrial influence coefficient but big emission intensity and the industry with bigindustrial influence coefficient and small emission intensity. The low-carbondevelopment in different industry category should be guided with different policy.Basing on the above analysis, this paper put forward the transition path which isdominated by policy guidance, technology guidance，market guidance, and also putforward the concrete suggestion for the low-carbon development of China’s industryfrom the aspect of restriction and incentive.The main innovations are as follows. This paper builds a mode of emissioninfluence factors regarding China’s industrial carbon emission with panel data from28provinces based on KAYA equation, with which we find the function of eachinfluencing factors. Combined with factor analysis, this paper put forward thetransition mechanism and concrete path towards the low-carbonization of China’sindustry sector, providing suggestions for policy-making of low-carbon development.