Research For The Model Of Land Sustainable Utilization In West Arid Zone Under Water Restriction

With the rapid development of economy, people and land relations have becomeincreasingly prominent, so that the limited land resources cannot meet the social andeconomic growth in the demand for land. Sustainable use of land resources is not onlythe basic aspects for the coordination of the Population, Resources and Environment,but also the basis for achieving sustainable development of the whole society. Theconstraints of water resources in arid areas as sustainable development in the westerncity, indirectly determines the scale of urban construction land demand, therebyaffecting the sustainable use of land.In this paper, Xining, for example, using the principles and methods of thesystem dynamics to develop the urban land use change scenarios model under thewater resources constraints. System dynamics is based on the systems science theory,and use the computer simulation techniques to study the operation of the system ofinternal feedback mechanisms and behavior. It is suitable for studying the relationshipbetween the internal structure of complex systems and their dynamic behavior. Inapplied fields, especially in the field of sustainable development has a wide range ofapplications.The problems of water resources in Xining region are mainly manifested infollowing points: the imbalance between demand and supply, water qualitydeterioration, the principle of excessive exploitation of groundwater. Construct thescene change model of Xining urban construction land under the restriction of waterresources. Aiming to a simulation study for the next ten years urban construction landchange in Xining. Firstly, with the restriction of region maximum water resources,obtain the maximum population bearing capacity and the largest economy scale,which are both resource factors. Then use social economy factors and technologyimproving factor driving model such as the rate of population growth, urbanization,industrial GDP. Try to obtain the macro land use demand with the restriction of futureseveral water resources. And construct the system dynamic model of causal loopdiagram of land use, then make the land use system dynamic model. The next step iscombined with the historical data of Xining region to correct the model. Simulating the future land use change of Xining. Mainly focus on the no restriction of waterresources. Calculating related data such as the maximum industrial economies scaleand the future population growth rate in Xining. Then simulate in different restrictionof water resources, and obtain the related data. Compare different simulation results,finally draw the conclusion.The results showed that: the system dynamics model of water resourcesimportant considers the factor of the water resources for the economic development ofthe entire population and industrial area constraints, emphasizing possibleenvironmental situation under the constraint of urban land use system change. Themodel has some validity, helps properly understand a profound impact on the urbandevelopment and land use change of the water resources. Due to the advantages of thesystem dynamics model in the study of complex systems, the study in the field ofsustainable land use is increasingly being used. But the system dynamics remain weakshortcomings spatial expression, so how to find methods to make up for theshortcomings of the system dynamics model, making the model more realisticsimulation of the real system and be more effective optimization analysis based on thesimulation system policy of the system, will become the future research directions.