Prediction Research On Construction Land Supply And Demand In Changsha City

According to Ministry of Land and Resources "on the implementation of the unit GDP drop goal guidance of construction land (Land information is sent [2012]No.24) and Land resources of Hunan province on the implementation of the unit of gross domestic product (GDP) construction land reduction target notification (Hunan land capital is sent [2012] no.23), at the same time of developing economy and protecting gross domestic product (GDP) to grow steadily, we will strictly control new construction land scale and take economical and intensive measures to reduce the construction land use, play the role of agglomeration and revitalize the land assets, in order to ensure the’12th five-year’final unit construction land to achieve the goals of falling GDP." In order to implement the national and provincial spirit of the document, achieve the dual goal of ensuring economic to develop steady and promoting the unit of gross domestic product (GDP) to decline construction land, we need to change the pattern of land use, strengthen the economical and intensive use of construction land. But in order to strengthen this aspect of the work, we should explore the effective method and way to promote construction land per unit of GDP dropped and put forward the measure of guaranteeing construction land supply and demand balance in Changsha city.This paper is divided into seven parts: The first part is the introduction. The paper is including topic background, domestic and foreign research dynamic and research significance, and the research technique.The second part is construction land supply and demand forecasting research theory and prediction methods.Research theory mainly expounds three aspects of the land supply and demand balance theory, land location theory, theory of law of diminishing returns; prediction methods expounds four aspects of multiple linear regression model, grey system model and BP neural network model.The third part of Changsha construction land utilization condition. Mainly includes construction land scale and structure, the temporal change of construction land, the study of general land use planning, and the problems of the construction land.The fourth part is Changsha construction land supply prediction research. Using the regression model, study the total construction land control in this regard, amount control and the prediction conducted for the control of construction land supply in Changsha and various counties (city, area),get the annual land supply in Changsha city and its various counties (city, area) from2013to2020.The fifth part is Changsha construction land demand prediction research. Using multiple linear regression method, the grey system prediction model and BP neural network method, study the total construction land demand, the demand of construction land in Changsha and various counties (city, area),get the annual land supply in Changsha city and its various counties (city, area) from2013to2020.The sixth part is Changsha construction land supply and demand balance analysis. According to the results of construction land supply and demand forecast,it is concluded that the laws of regional construction land supply and demand situation.The seventh part is the main achievement of this study has found out the main direction, in this study the shortcomings and further research.