Font Size: a A A

Our Multi-dimensional Economic Boom Stock-Watson Type Sentiment Index Method Based On The Analysis

Posted on:2015-03-03Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:C G WangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2269330428960342Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
In the context of global economic integration, the market characteristics of cyclical economic fluctuations are more remarkable, therefore, in order to ensure stable and rapid economic development, it is essential for macroeconomic surveillance. The fluctuations in the economy as a tool to monitor the application of economic sentiment index gradually developed.The late1960s, the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research and the U.S. Department of Commerce have developed a composite index, which was an index as a monitoring tool for economic fluctuations. Composite index (CI) will be due only on the rise and fall phases compared to simple numerical indicators, making some people believe that the lack of support rigorous mathematical model is not sufficient to produce convincing results. In addition, with the gradual development of China’s market economy, in all areas of macroeconomic fluctuations exhibit different cycles, cycles before mutual influence of these fluctuations is a very complex process. This leads to the synthesis of the traditional single index system has been not able to meet the accurate and comprehensive reflect the needs of macroeconomic conditions.Based on the above two issues, this paper based on the use of built on a more rigorous mathematical models Stock-Watson index for China’s macroeconomic framework to build a more comprehensive multi-dimensional sentiment analysis system. On prices, consumption, investment, exports, automobile, real estate and macroeconomic aggregates were constructed SW climate index, thereby forming a multidimensional SW China’s macroeconomic climate index monitoring system. SW sentiment index contrast of traditional composite index constructed in this article, the results showed SW sentiment index can accurately reflect macroeconomic fluctuations, more sensitive to economic turning point, and multi-dimensional framework for climate analysis of China’s macro-economy can be more accurate and comprehensive. To a certain extent, we can determine the exact cause of every economic transition drivers, macro-control mechanism so as to be more timely and effective macroeconomic regulation to provide more targeted policy recommendations.The method used in this paper, compared with the traditional method, there are two main differences:First, Stock-Watson index method used in this paper is based on a sound theoretical foundation and exponential rigorous mathematical model construction method, comparing to some traditional the sentiment index construction method has better logical rigor. Second, compared to China’s current economic monitoring is carried out based on understanding of the macroeconomic aggregates, we use multi-dimensional framework of analysis, several important dimensions of the macroeconomic climate index system were established by considering the various dimensions of macroeconomic dynamic relationship between different types of monitoring and predicting fluctuations in various fields, in order to grasp the structure of the perspective of China’s macroeconomic situation.
Keywords/Search Tags:Economic cycle theory, Climate analysis, Multidimensional analysisframework, Stock-Watson Index
PDF Full Text Request
Related items