| In recent years, continued tight supply of energy and crude oil prices rising, aswell as the worsening human survival environment caused by traditional fossil fuelcombustion emissions, energy security and environmental pollution problems arereceived more and more attention. As one of the main sources of energy consumptionand air pollution, automobile has the urgent need of new clean alternative fuels.Different kinds of Energy-saving and new energy vehicles gradually came into sight,including Natural gas vehicle and other alternative fuel vehicles, Hybrid vehicles, P ureelectric vehicles, Hydrogen vehicles.Natural gas vehicle is recognized as high energy saving, low pollution, strongeconomy, high safety of new type of alternative fuel vehicles. Consider the relativelyrich of natural gas resources in China and the relatively mature of technology, in thecase of other energy-saving and new energy vehicles’ technology, market remains to beimproved, to vigorously develop natural gas vehicle may be a more practical andfeasible path. In recent years, China has accelerated the pace of development ofNatural gas vehicle. According to the latest industry data, by the end of2012, theownership of National natural gas vehicle is more than2million. As to the applications,NGV is mainly concentrated in the field of public transport. In addition, with oil pricesrising and the gradual improvement of NGV technology, Natural gas vehicle has amodest growth in commercial vehicles, private cars and other fields. Especially in thefield of private cars, which has a huge and rapid growth in the number, the growth ismore obvious, the foreseeable space for development is huge. However, the promotionof Natural gas vehicle in the field of private cars is still faced with various problemsand challenges, prospect is unclear.This article attempts to abstract the popularization and application of natural gasvehicle in the field of private cars as a natural gas car project, and through the analysisof all affected aspects of the project, to determine the prospects of natural gas cars.First, through the analysis of policy, resources, technology and market environment ofthe natural gas car project to determine the implementation environment conditions;Secondly, based on the analysis of general project economic evaluation methods and the consideration of the characteristics of natural gas car project and evaluationproblem, to establish the specific economic evaluation method which is suitable fornatural gas car project; Then, the system analysis method is adopted to the differentfactors affecting the economic benefits of natural gas car project system, and on theanalysis of present situation and development trend of domestic gas prices to forecastthe natural gas prices by the method of the market net return values combined withgrey prediction; Finally, from the view of the private car owners to calculate theincremental NPV under different discount rate of increment and incremental IRR,combined with uncertainty analysis to evaluate the influence of various factors to theeconomic benefits of the natural gas car project. Research suggests that natural gascars have good economic benefit in the current stage, and in the short term there hasgood prospects, but because gas prices are greatly influenced by policy changes, thedevelopment of longer-term future is still significant uncertainty. |
