The Research On PMI And Its Forecast For China’s Economic Growth

The arrival of the economic globalization, which leads to the foreign enterprise and products come into China continually, the market competition is increasingly fierce, factors which affect the economy is more and more uncertain. These bring blindness to the national macroeconomic policy on the one hand, and both caused great pressure and provides a rare opportunity to the enterprise on the other hand. Under the new situation, Timely grasp the market economy is necessary if the government economic policy makers want to make scientific and reasonable economic control policy while the corporate decision makers want to make the enterprise to success. Then a leading economic indicators is needed to predict the future of economic growth if you want to grasp the economic trends accurately. At present some commonly used macroeconomic indicators, due to the time of release late can’t satisfy the timeliness requirements of economic forecasting, but the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) released at the beginning of each month, ahead of other economic indicators, and also has the advantages of simplicity, accuracy and the comprehensive, international comparability, meet the requirement of the efficiency of the economic forecasts. Then triggered the research of the PMI index and our country’s economic growth forecast in this paper.Purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which adopt the form of Internet to issue monthly survey questionnaire to the purchasing managers of the enterprise, and accorded to the result of questionnaire compiled a comprehensive set of monthly survey indicators, With the different of traditional GDP which only measure "value-added", the PMI main components are associated with the procurement activities of enterprises, it covers the enterprise each link such as procurement, production, circulation and so on, reflects the activeness and change trend of the business’s purchasing and supply activities, which is the entire front link in the production and business operation, affect the production and operation of enterprises directly. So with the PMI to predict the change of the economic trends can effectively guide the enterprise production and operation plan. In our country, the PMI is divided into manufacturing and non-manufacturing, manufacturing PMI is divided into CFLP PMI and HSBC PMI. So use which PMI to predict the direction of future economy is particularly important for the enterprise’s economic activities. Based on this purpose, This paper study the manufacturing of CFLP PMI and HSBC PMI to forecast our country’s economic growth indicators.On the basis of predecessors’ research, this paper integrated use of comparative analysis, the combination of theory and empirical analysis, summarized method, the paper mainly from the following several parts to research the manufacturing PMI index itself and its forecast for Chinese economic growth, in order to use the timely and effective results of prediction to guide the market economic development. The paper’s first chapter mianly introduced the background, the development course, the literature review of the PMI and the research topic related content; The second chapter analyzes the profile of PMI in our country, the meaning of establish PMI and the calculation method of PMI; The third chapter further expatiates the differences between CFLP PMI and HSBC PMI, then analysis the conditions of PMI’s seasonal adjustment; The fourth chapter introduces the related principles of the forecast model; The fifth chapter is about the empirical analysis part, by the fourth quarter of2005to the first quarter of2014in the manufacturing of CFLP PMI and HSBC PMI, and the data of the accumulated growth in gross domestic product (GDP), use those data to analysis their relevant of time series, then through granger causality test obtain the causal relationship between them, establish the VAR model of double variables, which based on the econometrics, and put the test to the model, then using the model to predict the economic growth, finally using impulse response function and variance decomposition intensive,which study the influence degree and predictive validity of the two PMI to the economic growth index separately, in order to find the dynamic relationship between the PMI index and the economic growth index more accurately; Chapter6summarizes the research conclusion of this paper, the result proves that the PMI has a certain reference value for predicting the degree of China’s economic boom, moreover the chapter points out the shortcomings in the research and put forward the suggestions and prospects. The different from previous studies in this paperis that we compared CFLP PMI with HSBC PMI, use the two manufacturing PMI to forecast the economic growth separately, in order to find out the best indicator of the two PMI to predict the tendency of the level of economic growth in our country, then to improve the accuracy of forecast, and thus guiding the economic development more better.