| As a hot issue of global environmental change,land use / Cover Change(LUCC)has been expanding and deepening in the research direction,research content and depth.With the deep research and the progress of technology,in recent years the research on LUCC pay more attention to the spatial temporal changes of land use pattern,and combined with the past,present and future land use characteristics,spatial pattern changes and trends,driving factors and explore its mechanism of change,in order to provide a reliable scientific basis for land management behavior the decision,the sustainable use of land resources to promote.In this paper,Baota District in Yanan city as the study area,using RS and GIS techniques to the study area in 2010 and 2015 issues of current land use database as the basis,combined with the characteristics of land resources,land use types are divided into cultivated land,garden land,woodland,grassland,urban and rural construction land and water six.Based on the data,the paper analyzes the change law of land use types in the past five years from the following three aspects: quantitative structure change,land use transfer matrix and fractal dimension model.Then,according to the two Logistic regression model,we select 50m*50m,100m*100m,150m*150m,200m*200m,and analyze the impact of the land use types of the driving force and driving force mechanism of the four kinds of simulation models.Finally,the use of CLUE-S model for the simulation of the change of the spatial pattern of land use in the future research area,through the comparative analysis of land use planning to generate results with Baota District in 2020,and to provide reference for government departments and decision makers in the rational use of land resources,but also on the land of the use of similar areas provide reference.(1)The main features in the quantity structure of the land use change in 5 years of Baota District in 2010-2015: woodland,orchard,grassland area decreased,the reduced area were: 1078.74 ha,1006.23 ha,296.74ha;increase urban and rural construction land and cultivated land,increase the area were 2207.37 ha and 224.03 ha,the waters area remained unchanged.Based on the analysis of land change in quality,the cultivated land quality during the 5 years of Baota District declined;(2)To the transfer matrix of land use as the basis,and a reduction of two from the new angle,namely the study of the early new direction of land use and the loss at the end of the sources of land system transformation analysis of advantages,type conversion between the rules of land use in the study area.Then,the calculation of 2010 and 2015 of six land use types and stability index based on fractal theory,through the analysis of calculation results obtained during the research period,Baota District Urban and rural construction land space distribution becomes more complex,in addition to water,other land use types relatively tended to be neat.(3)According to the results of the two regression coefficients Logistic regression to explore the driving force of land use change,and in 50m*50m,100m*100m,150m*150m,200m*200m under different spatial scales,through the comparison of ROC value,get the best simulation of land use spatial pattern of Baota District quasi scale is 100m*100m,and on the basis of the driving force analysis of different land use types,reveals the driving force mechanism.(4)The CLUE-S model was introduced to predict the spatial pattern of land use in 2020,and to compare and analyze the general land use planning in Baota District in the year of 2020.The results show that the interaction of Baota District Planning,the driving force factors and all types of land demand,the next five years,urban and rural construction land increased significantly,mainly for forest and grassland conversion to urban and rural construction land,arable land continued to maintain a small amplitude increase. |
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