Study On Risk Early Warning Of Typical Chemical Production Process

The inherent dangers of the chemical industry determine the high-risk characteristics of the production process,with high accident rates and serious consequences.Prevention and control in advance can truly reflect the essence of risk management,while after-treatment has failed to meet the needs of contemporary chemical safety in production.Based on the theory of system safety and early warning taking the typical chemical production process as the study object,the early warning signal which is directed by the analysis and prediction of the change of the risk status and the trend of change is transmitted according to the actual situation of production.And then,the effective measures are taken to prevent accidents ahead of the prevention.Firstly,guided by the accident causing theory,the main risk factors of typical chemical production process are determined by the possibility,severity and sensitivity as the boundary conditions of risk identification.The risks are analyzed by building the interpretative structural model(ISM)to separate the hierarchy of risk factors.And the effects on the main risk factors in the role of early warning management are analyzed.Secondly,combined with the identification and analysis of risk factors,the risk early warning index system is constructed from the three dimensions of possibility,severity and sensitivity.The index screening method based on interval estimation is adopted to determine the risk early warning index of typical chemical production process and calculate the weight value of secondary index.Then,the risk early warning is divided into five levels of tremendous warning,serious warning,moderate warning,light warning and no warning to determine the warning limit and the warning signal output.Based on the BP neural network theory and fuzzy logic theory,a "series" classification risk early warning model is established.Matlab programs and Mamdani fuzzy inference system are applied to achieve a comprehensive risk early warning research from subsystem to the system of early warning indicator in typical chemical production process.Finally,the risk early warning application research of typical chemical production process is carried out by taking hydrocracking unit as an example.Based on the survey data,the risk early warning values of the device in the production process from subsystem to system can be respectively obtained.Early warning results are analyzed,and effective early warning control measures are put forward.