Study On Calculation And Co-control Effects Of Motor Vehicle Pollutant Emission

In recent years, with the rapid development of social economy and the improvement of living standards of residents, the steeply growing amount of motor vehicle and emissions has become the main source of air pollution in many cities. In view of the regional characteristics of the pollutant exhausted by motor vehicle, establishing control study and reasonable pollution control measures of regional motor vehicle is imminent.The paper takes Shanghai motor vehicle emissions research as the goal. By detailed investigation of Shanghai motor vehicle road traffic and other basic data and the usage of the product of motor vehicle emission factor and the motor vehicle activity data, it gets the pollutant emissions of Shanghai motor vehicle. Meanwhile, it predicates the pollutant emissions of Shanghai motor vehicle in the next few years. Firstly, the result indicates that:(1) From 2007 to 2012, the Shanghai motor vehicle pollutant emissions will decrease trend, from 564700 tons in 2007 to 507900 tons in 2012, shows that the region of the situation of the motor vehicle exhaust pollutant get some relief in recent years, but pollution is still severe;Meanwhile, according to the results of the share rate of motor vehicle exhaust pollutant indicate that MC, LDGV, HDDT and HDDV is the main source of the emissions, their total emissions account for more than 90% of the total vehicle emission. (2) Using the structure of the unary linear regression model and test principle, through the analysis of Shanghai motor vehicle holdings, the total number of pollutants and the pollutant emissions data from 2007 to 2012, it sets up the unary linear regression forecast model between Shanghai motor vehicle holdings and the total amount of the motor vehicle exhaust pollutant, that is Yi;=71.703-0.06Xi, correlation coefficient R= 0.958. Then, using the forecast model, it analyzes and then obtains the total amount of Shanghai motor vehicle pollutant in 2013-2018 and the predicative value of the 6 kinds of pollutant emissions.Secondly, through the existing information and data, taking 2007 to 2012 as a time series and using the grey correlation method, the paper analyzes the factors which influence atmospheric environment in Shanghai. According to analysis, each pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere is affected by many factors, with motor vehicle emissions being the main cause of increasing air pollutant concentration. Meanwhile, it selects seven economy indicators as a representative of economy variables in Shanghai, through the principal component analysis to extract the principal component as the representative factors and through multiple linear regression method to establish multiple linear regression equation, that is Y=102.81+0.408X1+7.107X2.According to the coefficient of the equation:economic factors impact the most on automobile holdings, the second is the influence of automobile production on automobile holdings. Thus we conclude that economic factors are the most important factors influencing the changes in automobile holdings.Finally, according to the implementation of motor vehicle pollution control measures at home and abroad combined with the actual situation in Shanghai, using the coordinated control system evaluation method, it designed three kinds of motor vehicle pollution reduction control scenario:"individual measures to control scheme, structural adjustment control scheme and integrated control scheme". Analysis of co-benefit between each pollutant and greenhouse gases under different vehicle control measures scenario provides the theoretical basis for Shanghai on the motor vehicle pollution reduction.