Research On Paths Of Regional CO₂ Emission Based On RICE Model

In recent years, climate change problems such as the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide emission seem to be more and more concerned by communities. As carbon emissions powers, china faces the large pressure for taking responsibility of reduction from all over the world. As a responsible country, in the Copenhagen climate change conference in 2009, China government has committed to decrease the CO2 intensity per unit of GDP in 2020 40% to 45% than 2005. But how to arrange domestic carbon dioxide emissions path, we can fully consider the current situation of energy, economy and environment of each region, ensure the completion of the emission reduction targets, utmost to promote the domestic economic development, and raise the level of social welfare,which is an problem urgently need to be solved.This paper select relevant indicators of energy- economy- environment, using the analytic method of multi index panel data clustering, constructed the region partition model, using this model, the 30 provinces in China is classified into five large regions. Then, on the basis of the above research and integrated assessment models of climate change(RICE), using the thought of comprehensive evaluation method of regional climate, the paper build a comprehensive assessment of the regional climate model which conforms to our country national condition. The model takes the current situation of energy, economy, environment of different areas into account, contains four modules, namely the objective function module, economics module, climatology module and economic climate link module.On the basis of changed RICE model, using different emissions policy as constraints, setting different emission reduction scenarios, the paper studied on the problem of carbon dioxide emissions path of China. The empirical results show that, the implementation of carbon tax system in a certain extent can reduces carbon dioxide emissions and the corresponding carbon emission intensity in China. Ultimately, only the fourth scheme considering the effective growth of economy can realize our country‘s goals for reducing carbon emissions intensity 40%.in 2020 than in 2005. In the future, the implementation of carbon tax policy and Emission task assignment policy of regional differentiation has the vital role and the significance to ensure the effective economic growth in china.