Research On The Geological Environment Carrying Capacity In Binhai New Area Of Tianjin City

Binhai New Area of Tianjin city, which is located in the center of the Bohai Bay region,has convenient transportation and contains rich resources, and its industrial base is also very strong, besides, it also has strong sci-technology innovation ability. In 2006, with the Binhai New Area has been incorporated into the overall development strategy of the national and its development dynamics is increasing, the socio-economic development is in the face of more and more geological environmental problems. Therefore, the research on the geological environmental carrying capacity of Binhai New Area and giving full play to the role of the "geological first", has a very important practical significance to the earthquake preparedness and disaster reduction, improving the protection of the environment and ensure the safety of construction.In the beginning, this thesis analyzed the connotation and the deficiency of the geological environment carrying capacity basing on the domestic and international research of the geological environmental carrying capacity of Binhai New Area, besides, this paper also analyzed the main geological environment problems of Binhai new area; Then this paper established the evaluation system of geological environment carrying capacity on the use of the principle and model of Analytic hierarchy process, and classifying the geological environment carrying capacity of Binhai new area into four grades of excellent, good, fair and poor combined with the Spatial overlay function of Geographic information system,which realized the grade classification of geological environment carrying capacity of Binhai new area; According to which, this paper established the system dynamics mathematical model of geological environment carrying capacity and researched the geological environment carrying capacity of Binhai new area using the theory of system dynamics(SD), based on the results of the grade classification of geological environment carrying capacity, this thesis established five kinds of Status trend type, Reduce resource extraction type, Reduce the rate of GDP type, Control pollution type, Comprehensive type by changing the value of decision variables reasonably, after simulating the geological environment carrying capacity of Binhai new area in this five different programs,finallychoosing the Comprehensive type as the best program by comparing the five different simulation results, in other words, the Binhai new area should improve its geological environment carrying capacity by lowering the exploration of ground water and improving the sewage treatment. In the end, this paper put forward some reasonable suggestions and measures to prevent and control the geological environment disasters basing on the results of the system dynamics predictive analysis and grade classification of the geological environment carrying capacity of Binhai new area.