The Research Of Factors Affecting Carbon Emissions In Anhui Province

With the rapid development of economy,carbon emissions of Anhui Province were increasing year by year. It’s urgent to solve the contradiction between economic growth and carbon emissions.Firstly, we have a statistical analysis on the energy consumption, economic development and carbon emissions in Anhui Province. We establish the Environmental Kuznets Curve between carbon emissions and economic growth of Anhui Province. The above research tells us the necessity and urgency to optimize the energy consumption, economic development and carbon emissions. Then we use LMDI decomposition to resolve carbon emission factors, find that: the contribution of economic development on carbon emissions is positive and significant, it is the main factor of driving carbon emissions. The contribution of energy efficiency on carbon emissions is negative and significant, and it is the main factor of inhibiting carbon emissions. From the long-term trend, energy structure factors can inhibit carbon emissions. Then we build a Tapio decoupling model, the results not only validate the decomposition of LMDI index,but also prove the carbon emissions and GDP in Anhui Province has been in a weak decoupling state which means the growth of carbon emissions is higher than the growth of GDP. All the research tell us the imminent of carbon emissions problem in Anhui Province from the side.Second, we research the relationship between industrial structure, environmental regulations and carbon emissions with the data from 1995 to 2013. Though the use of unit root test, cointegration test, and State-space Model with variable coefficients, we can draw the following conclusions. In the long term, industrial structure and environmental regulation have a stable relationship with carbon emissions. Industrial structure promotes carbon emissions but environmental regulation inhibits carbon emissions. The effect of industrial structure is stronger.Finally, according to the conclusions of this paper, we put forward several recommendations.