| The proportion of loss of any function of substandard Ⅴ water rises year by year, in the face of the serious situation of water pollution, emissions trading mechanism put forward by the Kyoto protocol as an effective and low cost management tool has been to many countries and organizations on the agenda. At present the emissions trading market expands fast, especially the Europe emissions trading system(ETS), the emissions trading market is expected to be bigger than the oil market to 2020, and to be the world’s largest market.Although developed countries emissions trading mechanism becomes more mature, but at present emissions trading in our country is still in the pilot phase and emissions trading mechanism is not consummate, especially the water pollution emissions trading mechanism. Sewage initial emission rights’ pricing is the key of the emissions trading, comparison of the current widely used methods of initial emission rights pricing, the system dynamics method combined with the replacement cost method is selected for sewage initial emission rights pricing research.The article main content includes the construction of the system dynamics model and the practical application of the model. When the system dynamics model is builded, first of all, the water resources subsystem, population subsystem, economic subsystem, social subsystem is identified based on the research question. Then according to the four subsystems a flow chart of sewage initial emission rights pricing is drawed, and the relation between the variables is analyzed to identify variables equations. The second, based on historical data, documents and other reasonable approach, the parameters are designed. Finally the model results are analyzed after passing the model test. In the empirical part, the sewage initial emission rights pricing model is applied to Liaoning region, using Vensim PLE software to simulate the sewage price of initial emission rights in Liaoning province from 2013 to 2018, it is found that sewage initial emission rights price is 2005.22 yuan/ton in 2013 in Liaoning, and the price will present nonlinear growth trend in recent years. Based on the future possible development trend of Liaoning, five projects of population growth type, economic growth type, technology growth type, investment growth type and comprehensive are designed, and various schemes of sewage initial emission rights price change from the perspective of rate and elastic coefficient are analyzed. It is noticed that the sewage treatment industry fixed assets increase, sewage initial emission rights price rise, and the extent of growth is very small, but whether it’s population growth rate, or the economic growth or sewage treatment technology improved, the price will be down, and the size is also small. Finally according to the coefficient of industry, sewage initial emission rights price of four different industries are analyzed. In the epilogue part, it puts forward five suggestions based on the results of the simulation.In conclusion, the sewage initial emission rights’ pricing is studied in this paper, system dynamics in combination with the replacement cost method is employed to sewage initial emission rights pricing. These studies provide reference sewage initial emission rights pricing method, due to the conditions of system dynamics is not strictly, it also can be applied on other pollutants to initial emission rights pricing. |
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