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Analysis On The Haze’s Damage To Biological Chain Reliability Of The Pre-Alarming

Posted on:2017-02-27Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:W J ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2271330488456930Subject:Basic mathematics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the continuous development of human society, the ability to influence on resources utilization and strengthening. This process has a good improvement of the natural environment at the same time is more damage to the natural environment continuously. Environmental pollution problems appear constantly, led directly to the human survival and the destruction of the ecological system. At present, some species extinctions are very common, undermines the integrity of the food chain. So, in recent years some scholars around the world to protect the integrity of the food chain and optimization of a lot of research and discussion. In China as one of the most abundant biodiversity in the world, and its biological species accounts for one over ten of the global. For such a country, how to protect the food chain has an important signifi-cance to the development of country and the people. Human normal life activities of situations exist corresponding influence on surrounding environment, if the quantity is suitable for claim right of natural resources will not have damage behavior of ecological system, but on the contrary, once appear, the problem of pollution or excessive use of the corresponding function in the ecological system and hierarchy will be affected by negative, this directly leads to the inappropriate human survival in the direction of development, the species of genetics, the diversity of population, etc, to reduce the integrity of the food chain.With the frequent occurrence of hazy weather in China in recent years, the negative impact of haze on people become more and more prominent. Literature [3] indicates the sedimentary atmospheric pollution. Although it no longer pollutes the atmosphere, it contaminates the soil and water, and may even enter the agricultural eco-system, transmit along and gather in the biological chain, and finally damage people’s health. In this paper, researches are mainly conducted from the following three aspects by starting from the entire process of haze’s damage to the biological chain.(I) Modeling for analyzing the damage of haze to the biological chainFirstly, the immediate impact of the haze on plants is described through modeling, and the damage to the biologic chain and the degree is analyzed. And graded haze on the food chain harm degree, no effect, serious influence and extremely serious influence three basic shapes.Afterwards, haze’s damage to biology is examined and measured according to the grading condition.(II) Model reliability evaluation methodIn this paper, the modelling of "natural restoration of species" and its species demand calculation, as well as the modelling of "artificial restoration of species" and its species demand calculation is carried out for different cases. The reliability of model is analyzed through the perspective of reliability, parameters and probability distribution trend and characteristics are sorted out and fitted.(III) Study on the early-warning mechanism of haze’s damage to the biologic chainAs for the early-warning mechanism of haze’s damage to the biologic chain, the mechanism is established with related technologies and methods. Early-warning mechanism about the quantity of species and the risk restoration timing after the early warning of species is discussed. At first, the restoration system model is simulated, and the early-warning prediction verification is carried out for related indexes with its model. It turns out that the feasibility and practicability of the early-warning mechanism is proved.
Keywords/Search Tags:Volterra model, risk early warning, reliability analysis, endowment insurance, the model of combined life, Years balanced premium
PDF Full Text Request
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