| With the rapid development of social economy, various environmental problems have been produced. Environmental problems, such as ecological environmental demage and carryng capacity continued to overload, garbage siege, air pollution and greenhouse effect, water shortage and water environment deteriouation, and excessive energy consumption, have become an important factor restricting China’s economic development. Thus, to realize the sustainable development of regional economy, it is urgent to carry out the evaluation of ecological system carrying capacity and planning of main environmental elements. However, many uncertainties and levels exist in the environmental system. Therefore, this study introduces the uncertainty optimization method and bi-level optimization theory, and applys them into the planning of environmental system to address the complexities and uncertainties.Firstly, the AD-AS model and the evaluation method of the ecological system are combined to establish SAD-SAS model for evaluation of the ecological system carrying capacity in Beijing. Secondly, combined with the grey theory, a comnined forecastin model with time-varying weights (CFMTVW) is developed to forecast the trends of municipal solid waste (MSW) in Beijing, and based on this, an inexact bi-level optimization model is developed for coupling control of waste management and greenhouse gas emissions. Thirdly, according to the uncertainties and complexities in Fengtai District’s water resources management system, a bi-level optimization model is advanced for water resurces management, wherein the coordination relationship between water managers and users can be better reflected. Finally, this study uses CFMTVW to predict the trends of electicity demand in Fengtai District, and based on the scientific forecasting, an inexact bi-level optimization model is developed for planning electric power-environment system, in which minimization of air pollution emissions is placed at the upper level, and minimization of management cost is placed at the lower level. Results show that (1) the level of carrying capacity of the ecological system in Beijing is on the rise, and the system itself has the capacity of prodection, which has great development potential; (2) MSW output in Beijing would rise slightly, but a shortage of dispoal capacity would remain, and composting and incineration would be the primary forms of MSW disposal. The contribution of landfill facilities to GHG emissions would remain predominant, while the composting and incineration facilities would be large proportion of system management cost; (3) after the South-to-North Water Transfers Project is put into operation, the water supply in Fengtai District basically meets the requirement in each year, among which, the local surface water and the South-to-North Water Transfers Project would exert significat roles in the regional water resoueces allocation system; the domesic is the sector is the one with the most waer resources consumption, the largest economic benefit and the largest pollutant eimissions; (4) under pi=0.01, the expected system cost would amount to RMB ￥ [105.86,161.50]x108, with the amount of air pollution emissions being [20490, 26190] tonnes. Under pi=0.05, the expected system cost would be RMB ￥ [105.85, 159.75] x108, with the amount of air pollution emissions being [20275,25917] tonnes. Under pi=0.1, the expected system cost would be RMB ￥ [104.00,158.70]x108, with the amount of air pollution emissions being [20030,25320] tonnes. Consequently, an increased pi level leads to a decreased strictness of the constraints or an expanded decision space, which results in decreased system cost and environmental pollution but also increases system risk. These results can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of Beijing. |
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