The Research Of Ecological Security Warning Of Hunan Province

As a big economy province in central China, Hunan province is in the process of changing from agricultural production model to industrialization model. A series of ecological problems follow the rapid economic development. Accompanying Hunan Province’s policy of actively building a resource-saving and environmentally friendly society in such critical situation, to carry out a research of ecological security warning, to study the ecological security status quo and its development trends is meaningful in the aspects of social economic and environmental resource adjustment, "two-oriented society" and "ecological Hunan" policies of the province, and, moreover, it inspires people on how to construct the management system of ecology, which provides us with dual benefit in both economy and management.In this paper, the ecosystems of Hunan Province is investigated, the 2004-2013 ecological security warning system is evaluated with the pressure—status—reaction model framework as the establishment of early warning system, with consideration of the regional characteristics and development status, combined with ecological security and ecological security early warning theory. According to the different district of the province, the factors which influence the safety of the ecosystem are:economy, society, science and education level, environment, and resources. Based on these factors, this paper uses PSR model to build a primary system of 40 indexes, screens out 21 indexes to establish an index system, and determines index weight. The research result shows:(1) Based on the maximum membership degree principal, during 2004 to 2005 year, the safety of Hunan’s ecosystem improved from neutral to fair. During 2010 to 2012, it declined to bad, then increased to fair again by 2013.(2) Based on index ranking according to each index, analyze of the main influential factors in each index level, combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the result shows that the main factors that has positive influences on Hunan Province’s ecosystem safety are portion of preservation area among administrative district, average GDP, controlled soil erosion area, those that have negative influence are wastewater discharge amount, sulphur dioxide daily production, and so on.Finally, in order to improve the already improved ecosystem of Hunan Province, which is still under heavy pressure, the recommended methods include reinforce the forest protection, adjust the economy structure, invest the science education, and strengthen the regulation on wastewater and emission disposal.