International Projects Tender Of Risk Analysis And Study On Relative Measures

In recent years, with the rapid economic development and accelerating participate in the development of economic globalization, China’s participation in international project bidding showed vigorous development of the state, the domestic enterprise level of technology and management ability have been greatly improved, but the complexity of the international engineering to presents new challenges to enterprise. International engineering project usually have specialty such as big scale, long construction period, involves complex factors, etc. There are kinds of unable predetermined interference factors during the whole process, such as:political factor, social and cultural factors, economic factors, natural environment, etc. These interference factors have much randomness. If inconsiderately, that may cause the interruption or scrap of the project, which will bring to the enterprise risk and loss. And the domestic enterprise to step into the international market just recently, used to use of domestic bidding mode, which has many examples failure. Therefore, we should deeply research domestic enterprises to participate in the international project bidding of risk, improve enterprise after winning the bid anti-risk ability.This paper summarizes the general principles of the risk analysis of international engineering bidding, the main content of the risk analysis are risk identification, risk estimate and risk assessment. First of all identify risk by the expert investigation, risk tree analysis; Secondly risk estimation by subjective risk estimation; Finally assess risk by the analytic hierarchy process (ahp) and the monte carlo simulation method. And then take Libya projects tender risk for an example, does systematic risk analysis with actual projects. In the project risk identification stage, it main existing political risk, economic risk and technology risk. And the program is estimated by subjective estimation method. At last doing qualitative risk assessment with analytic hierarchy process (yaahp software) to Libya project during risk evaluation stage, monte carlo method (Crystal Ball software) to this project tendering phase, project duration control risk simulation, to Libya project risk quantitative risk assessment. With the qualitative and quantitative analysis method for project decision provides actual basis. And through the uncertainty and risk evaluation may results together, put forward the specific measures and methods to lower the risk. The results of the paper show that we are more able to have a systematic analysis to the risk of the international project tender stage with the qualitative and quantitative risk analysis method in the tender process. With the method of computer simulation analysis, we can calculate the risk of the overall project size, the offer of the tender stage specific amount and the duration time. Compared to manual calculation, it is not only improving the efficiency and accuracy but also providing more practical method of risk analysis for domestic enterprises in the international tender stage.