Prediction And Analysis Of Central Heating Coal Consumption And Energy-saving Potential In The Northern Provinces Of China Under Urbanization

Urbanization is an inevitable choice for social and economic development.Strengthening the “quality” without slowing down the “quantity” is of great guidingand practical significance to the urgent problems to be solved under urbanization asChina is in the key period of rapid development of urbanization construction. Centralheating, guarantee of stable and harmonious life in northern provinces and crucial partof livelihood construction, is related to energy, environment, urban construction andso on. According to the statistics, coal consumptions of central heating account for35%of national total household coal consumptions in2011.In this paper, coalconsumption forecast of central heating under urbanization is analyzed, and somemethods of the forecast is provided, then coal consumptions of central heating indifferent urbanization scenarios are presented in an intuitive and quantitative way. Itis a useful reference for the establishment of a new central heating project and for thechoices of clean energy in heating and the estimation of corresponding usage amount.On the basis of China’s urbanization and the reality of central heating in northernprovinces, adopting the method of econometrics, in this paper we find the mostsignificant factor: central heating area from numerous factors affecting coalconsumptions of heat-supply and then we forecast dwelling and non-dwelling areasthrough demographic factor. Moreover, the research on heating area is started fromthe requirements and characteristics of urbanization. The urban population is dividedinto four and each is counted, calibrated and fore-casted based on its evolution rulesthrough the methods of statistics, gray system, exponential growth model, semi-exponential growth model and Logistic model and then central heating area ispredicted. In addition, by comparing the difference between theoretical and real data,we implement adjustment and optimization putting2011as the base year and verifythe value through the real data of2012. And then more than twenty years’ coalconsumption of central heating in reality and in the future is worked out throughdissecting the calculation formula of coal consumption and analyzing the number ofdays in heating production, building consumption indicators, heating boiler and pipenetwork efficiency. In the following, we adjust the rebuilding project of shantytownsand the rate of population migration to calculate the different impact of them on coalconsumption of central heating. Finally, we make notes and recommendations for the problems identified and make a summary and outlook of possible innovations anddeficiencies.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:The development ofurbanization has important effect on central heating coal consumption,Urbanizationwill make the energy requirement increasing t and improve energy efficiency,Theproblems and potential of centralized heating both are great.The main factor affectingthe non residential is area population.