Research On Prevention And Identification Of Duration Risk Paths In Construction Project

Construction project is a complicated system, its construction period always lastlong, involved many participants, including owners, contractors, supervisor, designunits, suppliers, etc., and the environment in which internal and external is complex.Therefore, the implementation of engineering project may have a variety of risks, whichseriously threatened the three traditional project objectives. Duration of the project isone of the three main objectives, is no exception, many studies have shown that thephenomenon of projects duration delays presents in90%of the projects, it can be saidthat raising the level of risk management has become a national consensus betweenresearchers and project managers. The systemic features of the project constructionperiod between the risk factors are not isolated, but interrelated, interacting. Therefore,a systematic analysis of mechanism and role of duration risk path and searching for thekey role of the path duration risk and risk factors is one of the current problemsresearchers and project managers should pay urgent attention to.This paper discussed the general risk mechanism generated from three levels ofrisk generation, risk symbiosis and risk transfer on the basis of Energy Release theoryand Domino theory. This paper divided the duration risk sources into three levels andanalyzed schedule risk mechanism based on defining the concept of schedule risk andthe actual characteristics of the project.Secondly, the paper identified risk factors for the duration with methods of casestudies, literature research, expert interviews, and classified the identified risk factorsbased on mechanism of schedule risk action, and ultimately determined the risk list.Again, the paper identified the role of duration risk path and build the structuralequation model of duration risk action path through in-depth study of the relevantliterature and interviews with experts;and collected actual cases of duration delaythrough survey method to conduct the goodness of fit test of the model, the authorconstantly revised the test results and obtained the model which is matched the actualsituation.Finally, analyzing each risk action path and risk factor of the examined model toidentify the critical path and the role of risk factors. On this basis, proposing preventionmeasures from the angle of risk blocking and risk sources namely combined with thereality of our current construction industry. It is difficult to control the overall situation if only to take precautions against asingle risk factor because of its sources, wide action path and wide range involved. Theanalysis of the duration risk action path is of good theoretical and practical significance,which aimed at the prevention of duration risk from the point to the line and provide areference for project management personnel.