Metro Ridership Forecast And Analysis Of Rail Transit Transfer Station

With the acceleration of urbanization and the rapid growth in the number of vehicles，theincreasingly serious traffic congestion problem of many domestic cities has seriously affectedthe people’s daily life. Rail transportation as a big capacity and high efficiency publictransport mode has some obvious advantages on improve the efficiency of travel and easetraffic pressure. Because of the particularity of its own system a lot of preparatory work mustbe completed in the rail transit planning stage so that it can play the key role of rail transit inurban traffic system. Rail transit passenger flow forecast is an important work，how toimprove the accuracy of the rail transit passenger flow forecast will to be a critical problemaccompanied by rail transit planning，construction and operation. As an important node of theinterchange station of rail transit network formed by the transfer in the rail transit passengerflow in the entire network passenger flow occupies large proportion, so the accuracy oftransfer volume forecast will directly affect the entire network traffic prediction accuracy.At first，the paper analyze the function，transfer form，traffic flow composition andtraffic connection mode and summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of different form.Secondly，analyze the main rail transit passenger flow forecast theory and method，and on thebasis of introducing generalized travel cost establish mathematical model to define three kindsof attracting scope of rail transit station. At last，establish transportation chain selection modelbased on the generalized travel cost minimum to calculate the probability of residents chooserail transportation chain travel and then to obtain Station Entry，Station Exit and TransferVolume of rail transit transfer station.To the station as the research object in this paper，the research scope is limited to the railtransit station of passenger flow range to refine the research object and research. Consideringthe influence of residents way and the route choice of a variety of factors to establishconforms to the orbit transportation way to travel the path of the probability choice model，inorder to achieve the goal of improve the interchange station passenger flow forecast accuracy.