Research On Risk Assessment Method For Power Transmission Projeet Based On ANP Model

The construction of power transmission project has a direct impact on the economic growth and social development of a country. Power transmission project has characteristics of capital-intensity, technology-intensity, high risk, and long-term investment cycle. For such complex projects, the level of project risk management has become one of the major factors that determine the success of the project. Risk assessment is a key step in project risk management, and plays an important role in risk management of power project. So it is very important to study new risk assessment methods to solve these complex projects.Based on the existed theory of project risk management, we analyze the characteristics of power project risk, and then propose the concept of power transmission project risk assessment. Next, we introduce several commonly used methods for risk identification. Using these methods, the paper gives an overall analysis of the latent risk factors in power projects construction, and then extracts a group of representative risk factors. Based on this, we build a comprehensive power transmission project risk evaluation system which takes the risk factors as input and output a risk score as evaluation result. For such a risk evaluation system, a problem is how to identify the weight of each risk factor in system. Moreover, because there are many risk factors of power transmission project, and these factors may have mutual influence on each other, traditional risk assessment methods may be not suitable in such situation. To solve these problems, we integrate the analytic network process (ANP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method together, proposing an ANP-FCE-based model. The ANP-FCE-based model provides a new thinking of power transmission project risk assessment.Finally, we apply the new method to a case of new power transmission project construction in Henan Xinxiang, and build the risk evaluation network indicators system. Using the risk assessment method based on ANP-FCE model, we exploit tools like Super Decision to evaluate the risk level of the project and identify the key risk factors. These results can provide decision information for the project risk controlling and management.