Research On Bidding Risk Evaluation Of Power Projects Based On The Whole Life Cycle

As the supplier of power engineering construction,the power equipment enterprise is the potential bidder in the early bidding stage of the project,and will face the bidding risk that the bid fails or the target object does not reach the expected profit during the execution period.At present,the overall awareness of risk prevention in the bidding stage of electrical equipment enterprises is relatively weak.They are limited to the response to the bidding documents while generally ignoring the continuity of bidding activities and the impact on the project execution stage,such as the decision of the purchase period of the tender and the execution of the contract in the project execution stage are part of the bidding activities.Therefore,combined with the whole life cycle theory,it is particularly necessary to identify and evaluate the risk of bidding projects in a reasonable and scientific way.Considering the whole life cycle,the bidding process should be scientifically detailed,risk prevention and control should be carried out in stages,and the disadvantages of subjective judgment should be reduced by scientific means.Then,the research of this paper is of great value to help power equipment enterprises to conduct analysis and carry out risk assessment in the bidding stage so as to effectively prevent and reduce risks.Firstly,this paper analyzes the current situation of domestic and foreign research on risk management,expounds the theory of power project bidding risk management,and divides the bidding cycle period of power project into purchase period,production period,bid opening period and execution period based on the whole life cycle theory.Secondly,based on above point,this paper puts forward an evaluation index system of bidding risk in power project.Then,the analytic hierarchy process is selected to evaluate the index of the system,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to determine the bidding risk level of the case project after the weight of risk factors is calculated.Finally,the application analysis is carried out combined with Z project cases.The results indicates that the risk factors of power project bidding are mainly divided into four categories,including owner unit factor,competitor factor,project internal factor and project external environment factor.The owner factor is the most important,followed by project factor,competition factor and external environment factor.The owner’s intention to award the tender during the bid purchase period and opening period is the most critical factor among the owner factors,and its influence on the project risk far exceeds the owner’s others factors as reputation level,performance ability and management level.The practice results proves that the risk level of the power project bidding Z is low.At the same time,taking the case as an extension,the corresponding risk control measures and effective strategy is proposed in terms of four stages of bidding purchase,production,bid opening and execution period.