Research On Risk Assessment Of Old Community Renovation Projects Based On ANP-FCE Model

The implementation of urban renewal action is a major strategic measure to promote highquality urban development.As a key area of urban renewal action,the renovation of old communities is increasing in importance year by year.Due to the characteristics of many subjects and meager profits,the risks faced in the actual renovation project should not be underestimated.Although the research on risk management is relatively mature,the research on risk assessment combined with the old community renovation project is relatively poor.Based on the above background,the following researches are made on the risk assessment of old community renovation projects:First,use the WBS-RBS method to identify the risks of the old community renovation project.Taking the risks during the renovation of the old community as the research object,through the understanding of the theoretical concepts such as the renovation of the old community and risk assessment,the renovation work of the old community is divided into three sub-projects: the renovation of supporting facilities,the renovation of intelligentization,and the renovation of social management,15 work packages such as building envelope,project internal structure,public infrastructure,etc;identify the risk sources in the process of the renovation project,and decompose the risks into 5 social risks,construction risks,management risks,economic risks,and other risks.First-level indicators,policy risk,security risk,bidding and contract risk,capital chain risk,natural risk and other 15 second-level indicators,and optimize the indicators through the coupling matrix to establish a risk evaluation index system for old community renovation projects.Secondly,the ANP-FCE model is used to evaluate the risk of the old community renovation project.Combining analytic network process(ANP)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE),a risk assessment model for old residential renovation projects based on the ANP-FCE model was established,and the two-dimensional quadrant method was used to classify risk elements.Based on an engineering example of an old community renovation project in Huaiyin District,Jinan City,Shandong Province,data were obtained through structured interviews,expert scoring,etc.,and the established ANP-FCE model was used to conduct risk assessment.The risk level of the subproject and the weight and type of each risk element.Finally,the countermeasures are put forward according to the risk assessment results of the old community renovation project.On the one hand,it indicates the direction of risk response from the overall perspective,and on the other hand,it analyzes the reasons for its occurrence and proposes risk response measures for 9 risk elements,such as policy risks,public security stability,and satisfaction of relevant groups,which are relatively important in the evaluation results.Combining the ANP-FCE model with the risk assessment of the old community renovation project,focusing on the unique risk elements of the old community renovation project,it verifies the feasibility of the ANP-FCE model applied to specific risk assessment cases,and enriches the old community.The research results of the combination of transformation and risk assessment theory have drawn the conclusion that the transformation of supporting facilities and intelligent transformation belong to a medium risk,and the transformation of community management belongs to a lower risk level.The feasibility assessment and risk management in the renovation process provide a reference basis,thereby ensuring the smooth progress of the old community renovation project.