Research On The BP Artificial Neutral Network Model Of Evaluation Of Immigrants’ Risk Of Late-stage Support Policy

According to the State Council document No.[2006]17file "the State Council on the improvement of large and medium-sized reservoir resettlement support policy to support the later" and the2011national of the verification results, the total number of large and medium-sized reservoirs resettlement in China has reached23.81billion.In roder to promote national economic and social development since1949,a large number of large and medium-sized reservoirs has been constructioned which has played a significant benefit in flood-control,power,irrigation,water supply and ecological environment protection etc.. In order to maintain the social stability of reservoir area and immigrant rights, the state has set up a maintenance fund, the reservoir dam construction fund and in late stage support funds, aiming to solve the problems of reservoir resettlement.In reality, a considerable number of immigrants are still living in poverty, who may face many risks come from economy, society and ecological environment, such as low income, single source of revenue, the lack of entrepreneurial skills and development rich channels,which because of various reasons, such as policy support is not uniform, low standards, support immigration benefit directly is not enough, inflation and other reasons.Resevoir resettlement risk if we aren’t properly installed and support the recovery and development of their life which inevitably erupted and lead to a serious social problem in reservoir area. Therefore,it is significant tha study for a comprehensive analysis of reservoir resettlement risk, methods and principles of system evaluation and control risk of immigration,which was a good basis for resettlement work.So that we can guarantee the reservoir play important economic benefit and social benefit as we expected before.This paper is based on risk management, economics, sociology and other related theories, research methods of comprehensive application of risk management theory, game theory, the theory of artificial neural network and BP algorithm theory, combining qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation method, in large and medium-sized reservoir resettlement support policy implementation based on the situation of monitoring and evaluation, the evaluation analysis and quantification of comprehensive system of reservoir resettlement risk, the large and medium-sized reservoir resettlement risk assessment and prevention of new ideas.The main research contents in my paper:(1) Combined with the theory related to immigration risk of water conservancy and Hydropower Engineering in China, this paper established the large and medium-sized reservoir resettlement risk theory, based on the connotation, characteristics, and types of risk of1immigration risk of arge and medium-sized reservoirs in China, the paper analyzes the causes of immigration risk of large and medium-sized reservoirs, with the application of economic game in game theory to analyze the evolution of the principle of reservoir immigration risk.(2) On the basis of requirements of large and medium-sized reservoirs resettlement late-support policy, following principle of the scientific, completeness, reliability, relevance, feasibility and simplicity of the index system, reference No.1033document "monitoring and evaluation index system for implementation of late-stage support policy" frame, this paper established the evaluation index system for immigration risk.(3)With the aid of application of BP algorithm combined the theory of artificial neural network, based on the situation of monitoring and evaluation data come from in large and medium-sized reservoir resettlement support policy implementation, this paper established the risk evaluation model of reservoir immigrants, toke Xichuan County of Henan Province as a case to study made the quantitative risk assessment for Xichuan County Reservoir Resettlement risk average was completed. The results verify the rationality of the application of BP artificial neural network model in the reservoir resettlement in risk assessment.(4)Established the control system of risk evaluation of reservoir immigrants. The goal in the near future to solve the problem of food and clothing and reservoir migration resettlement area weak infrastructure problems, the long-term goal is to strengthen the reservoir resettlement and construction of infrastructure and ecological environment, improving the production and living conditions of immigrants, promoting economic development, increasing income of the immigrants and immigrants living standards up to the average level of the local rural residents constantly.