| Water resources as an important part of nature, it is not only a perennial sourceof all species upon earth, which in the process of human being society development, itis also gradually evolved into a kind of commodity economy. Water has closelyconnected with human survival already, and the water resources security has becomeone of the main factors to restrict the development of human society. China’s averageannual runoff of water resources in sixth place in the world, but it is lower than theworld average per capita amount of runoff. Xinjiang is located in the northwest ofChina border, the development of oasis ecological that relying on the distribution ofwater resources is fragile. Due to the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of waterresources, the seasonal water shortage is serious. As China adopted a policy of thewestern development strategy and so on, Xinjiang’s industrial structure has changedand urbanization process accelerated, resulting in water resources to generateecological imbalances.Water resources ecological security assessment is conducted for water resourcesanalysis, prediction and assessment, and put forward some suggestions focus onprevention, improve, reduction water ecological risk countermeasures. To establish ascientific and reasonable evaluation index system of water resources is the basis of theevaluation study, it is also one of important content to study water security. This paperaims at oasis agriculture of Xinjiang arid region, to evaluate the ecological security ofwater resources, to build DPSIR evaluation index system to analyze the water. We usethe entropy weigh method-comprehensive evaluation method and particle swarmoptimization algorithm-projection pursuit evaluation method to analysis, and putforward the corresponding security construction suggestions. The main researchcontents are shown below:(1)On the basis of refer to the relevant research about ecological security of waterresources at home and abroad, summarized the connotation of water security properties including two aspects about natural, social and economic security, putforward the ecological security assessment of water resources is a complex andlong-term work, it is necessary to coordination of water resources with the localeconomic, ecological and other aspects the relationship between the development.(2)Build DPSIR evaluation index system, according to scientific, systematic, dynamicand static, qualitative and quantitative, comparability, maneuverability, timelinessprinciple, established contains the driving force, pressure, state, impact andresponse five index layers, a total of25indicators. Interpretation the evaluationindex and statement of calculation. Using cronbach’s alpha reliability coefficientmethod of the index system for the reliability analysis, after standardized indexentries the cronbach’s alpha is0.85, the results show that the evaluation indexsystem can reflect the Hotan water ecological security.(3)To evaluate the ecological security of water resources from2002to2011in Hotan, compare two methods, the first is the use of entropy method,determining the weight to calculate the comprehensive ecological safe, the secondis using particle swarm optimization algorithm combined with the projectionpursuit evaluation model, getting the ecological security evaluation value, thenusing the regression analysis of evaluation value of each factor contribution rate.The results showed that: the two methods get the same results, which reflects thereal Hotan water ecological security situation appeared gradually turn a goodtrend, water resources carrying capacity of regional social and economicdevelopment gradually improve, ecological function gradually get better. On thebasis of the above analysis, puts forward some countermeasures for water resourceecological security construction, to provide certain reference for water resourcesand the sustainable development of the social, economic, ecological, etc. |
