Simulation Optimization Of Water Resource Managing Based On DPSIR Model

With the rapid economic development and the continued growth of populationNorthwest China, as the lifeline of human survival and economic development,water shortage has been the main factors which restricted the Northwest economicand social development and ecological environment improvement. Solving thisproblem requires not only technical innovation, but more rational water resourcesmanagement system for protection. For the problems of the Heihe River Basincurrent water resources management in Ganzhou district in Northwest China, basedon system dynamics, established the conceptual model which based on the "Drivingforce (D) - Pressure (P) - State (S) - Influence (I) - Response (R) "for the Ganzhouwater resources management model. The model covers the four elements ofpopulation, socio-economic, water resources and environment, not only shows thedemographic, social and economic development for the water system pressure andinfluence also shows models of different water management impact and feed backwater resources system.Firstly, it described the basic theory and method of the DPSIR concept modelthat is, Driving force-Pressure-State-Influence-Response) in water management,and from the five aspects about driving force, pressure, status, influence andresponse discusses the problems in the process of water use and management instudy area;Then, according to the theory and method of system dynamics, based onD-P-S-I-R structure to study a qualitative assessment of water resourcesmanagement system, and selected the 31 representative parameters, builded DPSIRmodel for Ganzhou water management. Applying from 2002 to 2007 the populationsocio-economic parameters and regional natural hydrological parameters,debugging and running for the construction of the model, make it as close to realitysystem.After model through the validation, with real problems in water resources system,solve problems and optimize water resource management as oriented, set3 different future water management scenarios, which can be expressed by differentregulated parameters, made multi-scenario simulation in DPSIR model of waterresource management. As the model initial year, model run in 2007, themedium-term planning year in 2020, the vision year in 2030. Different scenariosrepresent the different future trend of the socio-economic development and waterresource management. These 3 scenarios are: demographic and socio-economicsystem optimization scenarios (scenarioⅠ), scenario to increase investment in waterconservancy facilities (scenariosⅡ) scenarios, democratic management of waterresources scenarios (scenarioⅢ), water-saving society scenario (scenarioⅣ).Finally, with 4 different scenarios, it put forward countermeasures and suggestionsfor future water resources management Ganzhou. In this paper, it constructed modelwith system dynamics software STELLA, process the data using EXCEL.