Evaluation Of Sustainable Use Of Water Resources In Songyuan Based On DPSIR Model

With the continued development of the society and the economy,the increasing demand for water resources has increased the severity of water shortages throughout the world.Songyuan is located in the western parts of Jilin Province.The jurisdiction of Songyuan includes Ningjiang,Qian Guo,Changling,Qian’an and Fuyu.There are some problems in city about the sustainable use of water resources: water demand-supply conflict caused by the uneven distribution and the irrational use;small water conservancy facilities are relatively weak and so on.These problems will now be the biggest obstacle to the sustainable use of water resources in Songyuan.Therefore,evaluating the sustainable development of water resources in Songyuan in recent years and forecasting the future sustainable development potential of water resources will help to understand the changes of water resources system and the impact of water resources system changes.The evaluation and forecast of the development of water resources also contribute to the sustainable development of water resources in Songyuan in a good direction,at the same time,to achieve the harmonious development of the whole region socio-economic and ecological environment.The study is based on the DPSIR model,and established the evaluation index system of sustainable utilization of water resources,which was used to evaluate the sustainable use of water resources in Songyuan from 2010 to 2015.Simultaneously,predicting the sustainable use of water resources in Songyuan from 2016 to 2020 with the gray prediction.Get the following conclusions:Based on the DPSIR model,the study analyzed the five factors that apply to the water resources system which include driving force,pressure,state,influence and response,and considered how to choose the indicators that correspond to these factors.Based on the results of factor analysis,21 indexes were selected according to the actual situation of Songyuan,and the evaluation index system of sustainable utilization of water resources was constructed.The weight values of the selected indexes were calculated by the objective combination weight method which was formed by the coefficient of variation and the modified entropy method,and the comprehensive index method was used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation value of sustainable utilization of water resources in Songyuan.The results showed that the changed trend of the comprehensive evaluation value in Ningjiang and Qianguo all rises first and fall later,and the decrease rate is relatively large;the changed trend the comprehensive evaluation value in Qian’an and Fuyu are fluctuating;the changed trend of the comprehensive evaluation value in Changling down first and then up.It can be seen that the development trend of sustainable utilization of water resources in Songyuan has great fluctuation,and it’s moving in an unsustainable direction.The GM(1,1)gray forecasting model was used to predict the sustainable utilization of water resources in the five counties(districts)of Songyuan from 2016 to 2020.The results indicated that the sustainable utilization level of water resource in Ningjiang,Qianguo and Fuyu all showed a continuous downward trend;the sustainable utilization level of water resource in Changling showed a steady upward trend;the sustainable utilization level of water resource in Qian’an is slower than that in Changling.On the whole,the development trend of sustainable utilization of water resources in Changling and Qian’an are relatively optimistic,the development trend of sustainable utilization of water resources in the rest of the area in Songyuan is poor.This study comprehensively revealed the sustainable utilization level and development trend of water resources in Songyuan,and pointed proposed some countermeasures and suggestions for the sustainable utilization of water resources in Songyuan,which could help to improve the local water resources development and utilization model.