Study On Evaluation And Prediction Model Of Service Performance For Highway

Highway is a kind of modern transportation channel, plays a more and moreimportant role in economic development. In recent years, with the rapid development ofhighway, our highway traffic mileage rapidly, bring enormous social and economicbenefits for the whole of society. Highway maintenance task is also heavier and heavier,maintenance and management is becoming more and more complicated.Highwaymaintenance, we advocate the prevention, find problem and correct in a early time, toavoid the situation that a great number of money have to put in to make up some seriousdestruction, and also to enhance the highway as public infrastructure service.Our countryhave been aware of the importance of preventive maintenance, and studied in a longtime,so far,many performance evaluation methods have already exist, but most are still inthe maintenance of traditional pattern, do not adapt to the various problems faced in newcondition and new environment. Research on performance of expressway pavement,through the investigation of the early damage phenomenon, using appropriate methods ofevaluation, and set up the performance prediction model,then take maintenancedecision-making,is still of great significance. For maintenance of construction investment,maintenance units to the construction unit and the service level of road surface based onthe perspective of users have a major impact, directly affect the economic benefit ofmany people.At present, our evaluation system is mainly for the ordinary asphalt pavement. Inthis paper, by analyzing the reasons of descend of asphalt pavement service levels,determine the structural strength, and the damage of the pavement conditiondetermination, riding quality, safety performance,calculation pavement riding qualityindex (RQI), pavement anti slide performance index (SRI), pavement condition index(PCI) and pavement structure strength index (PSSI) on the basis of the, and finallycalculated pavement quality index PQI use the four indexes,and use the curing index asthe ultimate standard to evaluation. As the evaluation system is too single, weightassignment is too subjective, based on fuzzy evaluation method is used in dynamicweighting value, we discusses the new performance evaluation method.Through the comprehensive performance evaluation of pavement, combine the mainfactors with the relevant data and effects of road service performance,reviewing the related model of performance prediction model, in a comprehensive analysis ofmechanical model, mechanical experience prediction model, regression prediction modeland the probability prediction model and other models,Attempts to use the method oflinear regression analysis, forecast the service performance of pavement according to therelated test data, and some predictive value is checked with the measured data, to makesure that the linear regression analysis method is feasible and effective.