Research On Transfer Model Of Car-commuter Trip Based On Nested Logit

With the expansion of urban space, urban residents live separation problem increasingly prominent, which to make urban average commuting distance and commuting time increasing. so that commuter travel problems become increasingly serious. Among various kinds of travel purpose, commuter travel for the purpose of work above rates as high as40%-60%, and the morning and evening peak travel volume is concentrate, whose main body is commute. That aggravated the contradiction of supply and demand in the city transport system. Therefore, solving the problem of good commuter travel to relieve urban traffic congestion has very important significance.Based on the intention survey of the car commuter transfer to public traffic, through analyzing the characteristics of the car and bus commuter trip and the influence factors of commuter trip mode and departure time choice, this paper built the Nested Logit model of commuter departure time and commuter trip mode choice, and analyzed the influence of car commuter transfer to public traffic by setting up bus lanes in an expressway, which provided a reference basis for formulating and implementing policies to relieve urban traffic congestion. In this paper, the main researches are as follows:First, background and significance of this paper were introduced, the research status at home and abroad were reviewed. At the same time, the research content and the technical route were raised. Second, some basic concepts and basic theory used in this paper were defined and explained. Then Tong Zhou area was selected as the research area, the survey method RP+SP was used to obtain the required data. And the variance method, scoring method, logic verification method were used to screen and modify the data. Finally, the Nested Logit model of commuting departure time and travel mode selection model was constructed. Anymore, five kinds of departure time rate of car commuter travel way to public transport transfer was calculated by using the model.The main conclusions are as follows:the main factors which influence commuter trip mode choice include the number of cars, age, the annual income of the family, time difference of public transport and car trip, the rising costs of car, bus fare, bus crowded degree, transfer times and car trip cost per unit of time; the main factors which influence commuter departure time choice include age, whether the school children need to pack-off and pick-up, work time, the annual income of the family, the number of cars and travel distance. In addition, departing earlier people are more likely choose public transport; because each travel cost can be regarded as a fixed level and with the cost of car per unit time increasing, the probability of the choice of bus trip is reducing.