Study On The Relationships Between Energy Supply, Energy Demand And Efficiency Under Dynamic Simultaneous-equation Models

Energy is the material basis of human survival and development which is regarded as the blood of social development and drives the development of society. With the rapid development of China’s economy,energy demand will continue to increase, at the same time, the problem of energy supply in China is also increasingly prominent, therefore the contradiction between energy supply and demand in China is also increasingly prominent. In addition, as the lubricant of contradiction of energy supply and demand, energy efficiency plays an immeasurable role in regulating the contradiction of energy market. Hence, to understand the situation of energy supply and demand, energy efficiency and their relationship has an important realistic meaning for the development of China’s economy.There is an inseparable relationship among energy supply, energy demand and energy efficiency. Thus,this paper builds a model for this issue, and systemically analyzes the internal connection among energy supply and demand, energy efficiency in different regions of China. This paper first studies the status quo of energy supply and demand, energy efficiency in China. Based on previous research, this paper further carries out unit root test for energy supply and demand, energy efficiency and their influence factors by panel unit root test method respectively, and obtains steadiness of each variable. Then we discuss the relationships among energy supply and demand, energy efficiency and their influence factors by using a panel cointegration test and panel error correction model. In the end, with the fact that the land area of China is wide, energy distribution is uneven,we build models for the national, eastern, central and western regions by dynamic panel of simultaneous equations, respectively. We obtain the following conclusions by analysis: Along with the economic growth, China’s energy demand continues to increase, and the contradiction between energy supply and demand intensifies. Although China’s energy utilization efficiency increases, the efficiency of energy utilization in China is still relatively low compared to other countries. From the conclusion of the relationship among energy supply, demand and efficiency, one can see that the relationship is different within different areas, but there is still a certain relationship among the three variables in varied degree.