On Characteristics Of Temporal And Spatial Distribution Of The High-speed Railway Passenger Demand

With the full opening of Lan-Xin high-speed railway, a new transportation network combining the existing lines and the new high-speed railway is formed within the Northwest Region of Inland China, which could effectively alleviate the insufficiency of transportation capacity to some extent. With the completion of the high-speed railway of Lan-Xin, it will be possible to separate passengers from goods progressively. The existing railway will undertake the responsibility of goods transportation while the high-speed railway for passengers. The change of spatiotemporal distance makes the distribution of passenger flow illustrating an obvious imbalance in time and space. In order to better meet the demand of passenger travel and improve the quality of the high speed railway service, it is of great significance to study the spatiotemporal distribution of high speed railway passenger demand.First, we introduce the formation of passenger transport demand, the factors influencing passenger demand and the characteristics of high speed railway passenger transport demand.And we try to understand the various factors affecting the passenger travel behavior by analyzing the railway passenger travel process.Second, the paper systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the high speed railway passenger flow, and defines the space-time scope of this paper.Based on the traveling time of passenger flow and the practical conditions of Lan-Xin railway, the Lan-Xin high-speed railway could be divided into four transport markets,represented by the city which the railway station resides in, respectively, Lanzhou to Xining,Lanzhou to Jiayuguan, Lanzhou to Hami, Lanzhou to Ulumuqi. On this basis, survey the passengers travel time choices using SP method under different sub markets, analyze the passenger’s personal information, travel information, and the city traffic information data using statistical analysis, and then make a cross analysis between the basic information of the passengers under different sub markets.Third, a passenger travel time choice model is established based on the multinomial Logistic regression model for the Lan-Xin high-speed railway under different sub markets.The model calibrates and inspects the factors that may affect the passenger travel behavior through SPSS13.0 software, analyzing different factors and its influence degree, which affect the passenger transportation. The results provide the basis for the Lan-Xin railway time passenger flow prediction.