Passenger Demand Analysis And Passenger Volume Predict Of High-speed Rail

High-speed rail transport, which is fast, safe, comfortable and low energy consumption, is recognized as the best means to transport passengers by busy route between cities. The forecast of high-speed rail traffic demand is generally used to draw up strategic plans, which is the guidance for the feasibility studies and operational plans of new and reconstructed railway. High-speed rail transport is high cost and high investment, the forecast of high-speed rail traffic demand is not only an important basis for the technology standards, the number of devices, operating model and traffic organization of high-speed rail transport, but also the key elements of project economic and the feasibility of the construction, thus, it has greater significance to predict the passenger capacity of high-speed rail transport accurately.Based on the analysis of influence factors of passenger demand for high-speed railway, this paper discussed the formation mechanism and travel mode choice. The paper concluded and summarized kinds of passenger demand model, and revised the gravity model so that it can be used in the passenger volume forecast of high speed railway. Referring to the data of high speed railway trunk lines in China and Japan’s Shinkansen, the paper predicted the high-speed rail’s short-term changes in demand, and put forward the policy recommendations with the Beijing Shanghai line as a case.The main points of this paper are:(1) prediction and analysis of micro tickets benefit is based on the forming mechanism of high speed railway passenger flow, and the transport mode choice behavior is the core problem of, the partake of passenger in macro-level.(2) the social and economic situation, the number of population and the generalized transport cost is the main factor affecting the passenger volume forecast of high speed railway.(3) the paper improved gravity model into a regional attraction model so that forecast and analysis for high speed railway passenger volume can be done with the detailed transportation impedance.