Study On The Selection Of Passenger Transport Mode In Regional Transportation Corridor

With the planning and construction of the "four vertical and four horizontal" railway network, the introduction of Bao-Lan High-Speed Railway will have a great influence on the choice of transportation mode which will eventually lead to an intense competition in passenger transport market. In order to analyze the impact of these changes on the corridor passenger transportation structure, and solve the competition and the fragmented chaos phenomenon from a variety of transportation modes, studied on the behavior of transportation mode choice in the regional transportation corridor, by mastering the rules of passenger trips, constantly improve transport mode service level and make full use of the limited channel resources to play their respective advantages while meeting diverse passenger travel demand, lay the foundation of the market about the formation of the advantages complementary, competition, collaboration and order for passenger transport market.In this dissertation, first of all, based on transport corridor theory, the influence factors of passenger travel selection from personal properties, transport properties and social environment were analyzed in detail, starting from the traveler travel psychology and travel process while combining with the structure and characteristics of the corridor transport mode. Then based on the research above, the three stages of interdependence travel decisions: Pre-Decision-Decision-after the decision-making was analyzed by using the utility theory, and the maximum utility decision model was obtained. On the basis of previous studies and following the principle of characteristic variables selection, the advantages and disadvantages of disaggregate model and aggregate model were compared, an MNL model evolved from the Logit model was established, the ML and NR parameter estimation algorithm were designed and the characteristic variables parameter estimation results were verified using the statistics and likelihood ratio.Secondly, based on the survey data of passenger transportation mode choice behavior in Xi-Lan transport corridor, the quantization method of some properties was given, such as "travel time", "income", "travel expenses", "cost income ratio", "Sources of expense", "security", "comfort", "convenience", "punctuality" and so on. Combining with the selecting principle of the characteristic variables, the "income", "time travel", "travel expenses", "comfort" are brought into the established MNL model and the characteristic variables parameter estimation results were calculated by TransCAD. Then the form of the utility function was determined which was used to predict the total contribution rate of different modes of Xian-Lanzhou transportation among cities and within cities.Finally, the elasticity theory of economics was introduced; the selection of the "travel time" and "travel expenses" as significant characteristic variables to analyze the effect of transportation mode choice was made with the aid of t test statistical analysis of the significance. By the cross elasticity calculation of variables on the "travel time", the relationship between the speeds of passenger dedicated railway and the proportion of the various modes of transport among the cities was obtained and the ideal speed is 250km/h. The analysis of point elasticity of the "travel expenses" variables indicates that transportation fare change determines the sensitivity of the choice behavior which provides the basis for the government’s macroeconomic regulation and control.