Research On Passenger Flow Forecast For Shen-Da Passenger Dedicated Line

With the promoting of train speed, its mileage will continue to promote. Railway passenger dedicated line in our country emerge as the rapid development of highway. At the same time, railway passenger dedicated line need to face great market competition pressure because modern transport has become increasingly diversified. Although the railway occupies most of the market share, its dominant position has been threatened, and the highway paralleling to it takes a part of its passenger flow. Therefore, in order to promote its market share, attaching importance to the development of middle and short distance passenger transport including passenger dedicated line is also very necessary.The existing Shen-da railway is an important part of Jing-ha Passenger Dedicated Line. In recent years, passenger flow of long distance bus from Shenyang to Dalian and middle and short distance bus show rapid growth trend. But now passenger trains have the disadvantages of fewer trips, long time-consuming, high full strength rate, not high ability of sharing the intercity passenger flow, etc. Therefore, it is difficult to meet the fast, convenient, comfortable passenger travel demand.This paper analyzes the social and economic development and traffic development of areas along the Shen-da railway, and uses four-stage method to research the passenger flow prediction of Shen-da passenger dedicated line. First, traffic passenger flow is predicted by dividing researched area into traffic zone and comprehensive application of two element linear regression model and gray model, and linear combination optimization method is used to treat the forecast results; While precision is gotten and the discrete degree of forecast results decreases, the forecast results is ensured to fluctuate in the specified error range. Secondly, the gravity model method is used to passenger flow distribution forecast, and the defects of increase rate method are overcome to some extent. Thirdly, passenger flow is carried out mode split forecast by using the classical Logit model. Fourth, passenger flow is carried out distribution forecast by using the shortest path distribution method, and according to the qualitative analysis of the project functions, passenger flow density of different sections are carried out divided. Shen-da passenger dedicated line flow forecast results are gotten by using qualitative analysis method, and the technical level of railway passenger flow forecast is promoted, as well as providing a reference for the empirical research in this area.