The Application Of Gravity Model On Passenger Volume Forecast Of The Passenger Dedicated Line

Because the passenger special line with technical Support of the high and quick speed, the speed of train achieve historic leap forward.Building the passenger special line on the busy main line, realizing the divides of passengers and freight service, can improve the transport capacity of the railway greatly.It can influence most passenger trains of existing railway lines, relieve the situation of short transport capacity, it can also meet the demand increment transported in the large economic zone, big city at the same time.The existing railway lines can be used for developing heavy cargo transport, to meet the needs of ever-growing transportation.The passenger volume directly affects the necessity and feasibility in the construction project of the passenger special line, and it effects play an important role in the investment of the whole, select, trends, design and human, material and financial resources in the passenger special line.Also it is a key factor of the passenger special line program benefits, and a important basis for establishing operation model and traffic organization programmed.So passenger volume forecast of the passenger special line has a great significance.Through the analysis of affecting factors in traffic volume forecast, This article primarily study the application of gravity prediction model in traffic volume forecast of passenger dedicate d line.First, By explain the situation at home and abroad,, summed up passenger traffic volume forecast methods that are currently using.such as MD forecast model, Four-stage method, Gravity Model, Regression analysis method and so on. Carry on the detailed analysis and comparison to these methods,, summarize their service condition and pluses and minuses.Next, Analysis the causes of induced traffic volume production, Compare and analysis the induced traffic volume prediction model. Analyze the influence factor of the volume of passenger transport in the passenger dedicated line, and summarize relation between these factors.The last, analysis on the sensitivity of influence factors to get the key factors, and Select them as the gravity model variables.Determine the total passenger volume amount between OD in previous years, calibrate parameters of the gravity model in the Passenger Volume Forecast.And combined into an instance of the Cheng-guan high-speed railway, applicant gravity models on forecasting passenger volume of the passenger special line.