Study On Conventional Public Transit Operation Reliability Evaluation And Simulation In Peak Time

In recent years, the namble of private cars is growing dramatically, traffic congestion problem is becoming more and more serious. As a main component of public transport system, conventional public transit plays an important role to ease traffic congestion. Conventional public transit operation is strongly influenced by road traffic environment,especially in peak time when traffic volume is larger,the operation reliability and service level will be greatly reduced.How to improve the operation reliability of conventional public transit in peak time is the research target of many domestic and foreign scholars.This research analysis the basic characteristics in peak time of main component, including person, vehicle and road, of conventional public transit system.On the basis of characteristics analysis, all kinds of influence factors of operation reliability are analyzed and classified.In this paper, system analysis method is used to analyze main affect factors of conventional public transit operation reliability in-depth.valuation indexes are selected and quantified using the analytic hierarchy process.The evaluation index system is established:Operation reliability is the target layer;Just-in-time,staility and transport capacity are the rule layer;Travel time reliabiltity,key station punctual reliability;arrival interval reliability,cycle arrive reliability,capacity reliability and fulfill reliability are the index layer.This research introduces the concept of extension theory,and establishes the matter-element evaluation madel based on extension theory.The article takes the375bus line for example to do the evaluation.In the end of the article, VISSIM traffic simulation software is used to do microscopic traffic simulation test.The test selects section from Beijing Language and Culture University to wudaokou as the research section, establishes road traffic simulation model of bus operation in accordance with the actual situation.The simulation put the improvement measures introduced in early part of the paper into the mode.The research compares the simulation result with traffic survey data to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the improvement measures, gives feasible improvement suggestions according to the evaluation conclusion, the result can offer certain basis to the future research about how to improve the operation reliability.