Identification And Prediction Of Regional Water Consumption Driving Factors

Water is irreplaceable natural and social resource for human beings, as well asthe basic requirements for sustainable developement. The fast developement ofsocial econogy and the increasement of population as well as water pollutionproblem which is being more and more serious has made the shortage of waterone of the bottle necks that limit the healthy developement of our nation.Scientific and accurate prediction of water consumption has enourmous meaningfor our nation and regional goverment to formulate long term plans for waterexploition and suppliment. Currently there are few researchs on the predictionof water consumption based on driven factors, and predictions avaluable are alsonot perfect. According to the inner structure and characteristic of water system,this paper investigated the methods to identificate main driven factors and theirinfluence, and took out the main driven factors of local water consumption.Continued with the method of multiple linear regression, this paper thenpredicted the local water consumption. Taking Shandong Province as the objectof study, we identificated the main driven factors of water consumption forproduction, live and ecologic, and then predicted the consumption of the above3kinds of water, the results are as follow:(1) Analyzed the exploition and usage of water in Shandong Province and theproblems. The study of natural and social status has shown that, ShandongProvince has good natural and geometric conditions, its economical and socialdevelopement is also at the leading stage in China. The water consumptionfrom1995~2010is decreasing. But as Shandong is at the area that is seriouslylacking water, plus the fact that the water resource has not been exploited andused efficiently, the pollution problem and sea invasion has made Shandongbeing in the stage that is seriously short of water. This result should be takeninto consideration when formulating water exploition and management plans.(2) Studied the driven factors of three kinds of water consumption, and foundout the main factors. According to the consumers, the consumption of water canbe divided as production water, live water and ecologic water. For each kind,based on the detailed characteristics of Shandong Province, we studied theirmain driven factors, and with the help of principal components analysis, grey correlation analysis and couple analysis, we finally select irrigation water,consumption per output and travel income as most important driven factors forthe1st,2nd and3rd industry. Annual per capita consumption and landscape areaas the most important driven factors for live water consumption and ecologicalwater consumption.(3) Predicted and discussed the water consumption of Shandong Province aswell as its driven factors. GM(1,1) model is adopted to predict the driven factorin2020. Multiple regression model is adopted to predict the water consumptionof the1st,2nd and3rd industry and so on. Results has shown that, the waterconsumption of1st industry will decrease with the decrease of irrigation areaand crop area, the2nd industry water consumption will also decrease to6.11billion meters. The3rd industry water consumption will increase to6.77billionmeters because of the increase of its driven factors. Live water consumption incities will increase under the influence of annual per capita consumption whilein countries, this value will decrease because of migrant work and urbanization.Such urbanization will also lead to the increase of water consumption inlandscope area, thus increase the ecological water consumption.