Research On Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources In Baicheng City Based On System Dynamics Theory

Baicheng is located in in the western part of Jilin Province, the ecology-ical system is the transition from the semi humid grassland to semi-arid desert zone, a fragile ecological environment, water resources shortage. At the same time, the water supply structure in the process of development and utilization the of water resources of Baicheng city is unreasonable, surface water resources development and utilization degree islow, the over exploitation of groundwater is serious, sewage treatment capacity is low, so that the shortage of water resources has become an important factor restricting the sustainable development of Baicheng city.By analyzing natural and geographical conditions, social economic conditions, geological and hydrogeological data in the comprehensive coordination, this paper calculats water resources in Baicheng city. Using DEA method to evaluate the utilization efficiency of water resources, the evaluation results show that: Baicheng water resourcesutilization efficiency is low, water efficiency ranking for2011is: Tongyu, Da’an，Taobei，Baicheng， Taonan， Zhenlai.Through the analyze of current situation of water development and utilization, system structure of water resources, the relationship between the cause and effect inside the system, this paper builds a system dynamics simulation model of sustain-nable utilization of water resources，consisting of a total of43variables,including8sensitive variable：industrial water recycling rate, irrigation water efficiency, sewage treatment rate, utilization, the degree utilization of groundwater， the degree utilization of surface water, the utilization amount of transit water, industrial water quota, irrigation waterquota.Using the system dynamics simulation model for dynamic simulation, the simulation result shows that: the integrated and coordinated programs effectively improves the degree of water resources development and utilization of the city, water supply capacity, groundwater overdraft has been checked, and by industrial restructuring, water conservation, recycled water use, proper inhibiting rapid growth of industry and agricultur e production consumption of water resources, so as to effectively alleviate Water tensions and promote rapid socio-economic sustainable development.