| The lack of water resources in arid areas of Northwest China,coupled with the irrational use and pollution of water resources,has caused water shortage is increasingly serious.How to deal with the relationship between water resources and economy,ecology and society is the urgency issues that need resolving in the current arid area.In this paper,the typical basin-Yanqi basin in arid area is taken as the research area,and the present situation and future development trend of each department in Yanqi basin are discussed.Based on the existing problems in the current situation of water resources utilization in Yanqi Basin,this paper analyzes the causal relationship between various departments and variables in the system by using the theory and method of system dynamics.Based on the sustainable development,the population,economy and ecology to build the Yanqi Basin water resources SD model to simulate the calculation;basin basin water resources system structure and behavior,to explore the current economic development in the case of water supply and demand balance and provide advice and countermeasures for the relevant departments;the research results show that:(1)Based on the unreasonable development of water resources and the degree of water stress,the system is divided into water supply,life,sewage treatment,industrial,economic,ecological,agricultural and other subsystems.We constructed the SD model of water resources optimization by constructing the causal diagram and flow chart in 2014.In this model,108 variable variables,8 horizontal variables,industrial output value,green area,industrial output value,cultivated area,11 flow rate variables,16 constants and 73 auxiliary variables were set up.(2)Based on climate model and hydrological model,it is estimated that the future water supply situation.It is found that the runoff of the open channel in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 shows an increasing trend,and the simulation results are better.The runoff rates in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios reached 37.11 × 108m3 and 38.47 × 108m3 respectively in 2020,2030 and 2040.The forecast results can provide data support for the subsequent study of optimal allocation of water resources,which is a prerequisite for water resources allocation.(3)We predicted of water use and change trend in Yanqi Basin from 2015 to 2040 through SD model.The results show that the water consumption in the basin,life,industry and agriculture is increasing in the present level.With the increase,agricultural water demand showed a significant increase trend,reaching23.10 × 108m3 in 2040.Agricultural water demand accounts for more than 90% of the total water demand,indicating that the agricultural sector is a serious waste of water resources.At the same time,the total water demand increased by the increase of water consumption in all departments,and reached 33.93× 108m3,36.05 × 108m3 and 38.68 × 108m3 respectively in the planning year.The contradiction between supply and demand showed a significant increasing trend with the increase of total water demand.RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change in 2020,2030,2040 water shortage were 5.42× 108m3,7.07 × 108m3,13.78 × 108m3 and 4.01× 108m3,14.94 ×108m3,12.56× 108m3,water supply and demand ratio is less than 1.Indicating that the problem of water shortage in Yanqi basin is leading to the overburden of groundwater,and the ecological environment in the basin is deteriorating.(4)In order to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand,the sensitive parameters in the model are adjusted,and the present situation continuation scheme,the industrial structure adjustment plan,the water conservation scheme,the mining control scheme and the comprehensive coordination plan are designed and analyzed.Under the progress of the adjustment of sensitive parameters based on the first four kinds of programs,the water demand in different departments have declined in different degrees and the phenomenon of water shortages have alleviated.But the supply and demand balance is still negative,water demand is greater than the water supply.The results of the five integrated coordination programs in the two scenarios were good,the gap of supply and demand were 0.5×108m3,1.77×108m3 in the year of2040 and the water shortages have been relieved.Therefore,the comprehensive coordination program can be used as the optimal scheme to provide theoretical support for the development and utilization of regional water resources.(5)According to the results of the study,the government should put forward the relevant policies,and effectively protect the prevention of water pollution.At the same time,increase scientific and technological research and development and investment,scientific and effective to reduce water loss;In addition,we should also strengthen publicity and education and a series of measures to improve the sustainable development of water resources in Yanqi Basin and economic development. |
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