Simulation Study Of Optimize Allocation Of Water Resources In Jiamusi Based On System Dynamics

As the heartland of Sanjiang Plain, Jiamusi has abundant water resources, fertile soil and fitting climate. Jiamusi is also the important grain production base of China and plays a significant role in ensuring the national food security. Recent years, however, as the rapid development of society and economy, some of unreasonable phenomena appear during the process of water resources development and use in Jiamusi, such as low degree of water resources development and utilization, unbalance between water demand and supply, unreasonable structure of water supply and low ability of sewage treatment. The phenomena above seriously affect the sustainable utilization of water resources and the harmony development of society-economy-ecology.Through the analyze of current situation of water development and utilization, remaining problems, system structure of water resources, inside of the system and the relationship between the cause and effect in the system, this paper builds a system dynamics simulation model of sustainable utilization of water resources. Aiming at realizing the sustainable utilization of water resources, this model selects Jiamusi as the research area based on the complex system of water resources-society-economy-ecology under the concept of sustainable development. The model is divided into6subsystems, including the water-resource supply and demand subsystem, the social water-demand subsystem, the agricultural water-demand subsystem, the industrial water-demand subsystem and the ecological water-demand subsystem, and totally67variables.To ensure the accuracy and reliability of the model, the model is examined by intuitive operation, historical and sensitivity analyze. The results show that the model can reflect the real operation situation with dimension unity and reasonable structure. After analyze of sensitivity of the model, determines8main indexes, which provides the data support for the design of water resources optimal allocation of Jiamusi.Using the model to simulate the structure of the water-resource supply and demand and the equilibrium structure of the water-resource supply and demand and the results show that the supply and demand of the water will be more serious in the future water development and utilization of Jiamusi, which will limit the development of industry and agriculture and the sustainable development of society and economy. As to the remaining problems and the problems that will appear, designs4projects, including continues the current situation, governs the pollution and increases the water storage, limits the exploit and reduces expenditure and comprehensive coordination.By analyze the simulate results of4project, we can conclude that only comprehensive coordination can solve the problems of shortage of water resources and will liberate the development of industrial and agricultural production as well as the development of society and economy. Besides, comprehensive coordination will realize the dynamic balance of the water resources supply and demand after2015. As a result, project of comprehensive coordination is determined as the best one for the sustainable utilization of water resources in Jiamusi and will provide data supply and reference for the policy adjustment of sustainable utilization of water resources in Jiamusi.