Assessment On Available Transfer Capability With Wind Integrated System Considering Conditional Value At Risk

In the face of growing environmental pressures, large-scale development ofwind power has been developed rapidly. However, the output power of wind turbinegenerator is difficult to realize day-ahead scheduling due to the randomness,intermittent and fluctuation property of the wind power, which puts a new challengeon the calculation and analysis of power system inter-regional available transmissioncapacity (ATC). Therefore, accurate estimating the impact of wind power onavailable transmission capacity has a special significance in maintaining the safetyof system operation and correctly guiding market transactions in large-scale windpower integrated system.The calculation of available transmission capacity should take variousuncertain factors into accounts, such as random failures of generation andtransmission equipment, load fluctuations, and uncertainties of power generationscheduling. This thesis uses the Monte-carlo simulation method to statisticalanalysis the ATC of power system, as the calculation method of ATC can betterdescribe the system uncertainties. Then, from the view of risk, optimize the capacityspinning reserve based on the theory of conditional value-at-risk. What’s more,calculate the value of ATC in certain system operation mode. Finally, analyze thechange law of ATC with different wind farm incorporated system, which has guidingfunctions for future expansion of the power grid and can provide effective referenceinformation for the safety and economics evaluation of the system with wind farms.