Study Of Evaluation And Prediction Of Navigation Risk Of Qingdao Port

Qingdao port isthe China’s secondlargest foreign trade port, and world’s seventh largest port. But as the economic of China takeoff, the rapid growth of port throughput and the dramatical increase of port traffic, the navigation environment has become increasingly complex, which leads new demands and challenges to the safety of the ship navigation. As an important part of the port operation, vessel navigation safety is the guarantee to the normal operation and the safety of ports.With the development of science and technology, people’s understanding on the ship transport accidents are deepening, the concept of safety management has also been rising. Currently, the management and control of the ship transport accidents have shown some new trends and characteristics, the emergency treatment for accident changes in prevention for future crises, the implementation of forecasting and early warning before the accident. These changes reflect the trend that qualitative analysis of accident safety into risk assessment and prediction based on quantitative. Therefore, in this paper, it has important practical significance to evaluate and predict navigation risk using scientific approach after considering its characteristics.Ship navigation risk has been identified from the aspects of the ship, environment and personnel using hazard identification theory based on the research on current situation of Qingdao port, then determining the index system of the navigation risk assessment and prediction. After identifing the risk, fuzzy inference system (FIS) was introducted to analyze and evaluate the navigation risk of Qingdao port, in order to determine the basic situation of the navigation risk of Qingdao port and the ship navigation risk factors for risky against navigation on the basis of risk assessment, through the introduction of Bayesian networks (BN) was introducted to build the ship navigation risk prediction model, the overall navigation risk and risk of specific conditions in of Qingdao port were predicted using the model, then the development trend of ship navigation safety was analyzed theoreticaliy combined with the actual situation of Qingdao port. Finally, some suggestions were made on the pre-control of navigation risk of Qingdao port.