Study On Passenger Volume Analysis Model Of Intercity High-Speed Railway Based On System Dynamics

With the development of the intercity passenger transportation system of the economically developed and populous areas such as Bohai Rim, Yangtze River Delta ,Pearl River Delta, intercity high-speed railway construction has been the preferred method solving region transportation problem of urbanization corridor areas. In different development periods of intercity high-speed railway, the changes and growth of passenger volume will also be different, passenger volume significantly affects the necessity of inter-city high-speed railway construction, the abundant functioning and operation management after its completely building.This thesis establishes passenger volume growth dynamic analysis models of intercity high-speed railway on System Dynamics combining logistic equation and passenger perception utility, and simulation study on the high-speed rail intercity passenger volume growth and its share rate is did with quantitative and qualitative methods to find the general discipline of the intercity high-speed rail passenger volume growth.Firstly, this thesis analyzes the intercity high-speed rail passenger volume structure and its influence factors deep. Secondly, base on the characteristics of high-speed rail passenger transportation system and System Dynamics, this thesis analyzes the passenger volume's generation mechanism. Thirdly, passenger volume growth dynamic analysis models are established combining logistic equation and passenger perception utility. Finally, taking the intercity high-speed railway in Yangtze River Delta as an example, a simulation study using the Vensim software is carried out to analyze sensitivity of multiple factors affecting the passenger volume growth and share rate of the intercity high-speed railway, such as fare, passenger perception comfort and investment, and it verifies the feasibility and rationality of the model further. Preliminary findings show that the programs of fares, passenger perception comfort and investment affect passenger volume growth: when fares are higher than the specific proportion of passengers'psychological fares, the passenger volume is beginning to take on the negative growth, and the reasonable correlation between fares and passenger perception of comfort is conducive to passenger volume growth. The implementation of different investment will help intercity high-speed railway to enhance and balance its profit .in different development periods,and during 2011~2030, the passenger share rate of bus and general railway will decline but the intercity high-speed railway's will rise. The study offers some support and reference to the further development of intercity high-speed railway.