Power Distribution System Total Supply Capability Adaptability Analysis Methods Considering Load Uncertainty

With the development of social economy, the scale of the distribution network is expanding, resources such as substation sites and wiring corridor are also increasingly nervous. therefore, distribution network planning must make full use of existing resources to chase Total Supply Capability. But it can’t ignore power load and its inherent uncertainty, so, how to consider the uncertainty in the planning stage, which make the distribution network achieve Total Supply Capability and have very strong flexible adaptability to load. Thus, this paper proposes power distribution system Total Supply Capability adaptability analysis methods considering load uncertainty, which evaluates the adaptability of different distribution network planning, in order to provide technical support for distribution network planning.First of all, this paper defines the basic concept of Total Supply Capability considering the load, including power distribution system Total Supply Capability, existing load and available load supply capability, etc. Then it introduces the basic idea of calculating Total Supply Capability considering load and establishes Total Supply Capability model considering load, the model considers available load factor in the pursuit of Total Supply Capability. Given model is typical multi-objective, variables, constraints, the linear programming problem, this paper uses particle swarm algorithm based Pareto.Secondly, according to the characteristics of distribution network, this paper proposes power distribution system Total Supply Capability adaptability evaluation index system considering load uncertainty. It use Monte Carlo sampling method to simulate the load uncertainty, thus introducing probability idea. Combined the idea with the model, it put forward power distribution system Total Supply Capability adaptability analysis methods considering load uncertainty. Which provides an assessment method for the analysis of Total Supply Capability and load adaptability.Finally, through calculating the same area of different distribution network planning of Changchun to verify that the proposed adaptability analysis method is effective. And compared with situation which don’t consider load uncertainty, which finds the distribution network bottleneck and vulnerabilities. Then it gives suggestions for distribution network planning.