Vulnerability Assessment Of Water Resources System In Urumqi City

Water is an important strategic factor in a country, like other precious energy security, as well as the development of socio-economic life of the people of the country to play a vital role, the dynamic changes of water by human attention. In recent years, the water crisis has become a hot topic of great concern everyone, the water crisis calls for a new water management ideas. When the plight of countries facing a water crisis, the major areas are also facing the same problem. Urumqi appeared serious water pollution in water resources development and utilization process, water shortage, water structure is irrational, serious waste of water resources, supply and demand contradiction of water crisis and other difficulties. Water system by outside interference, its structure changes, vulnerability of regional water resources systems increasingly prominent, the vulnerability of water resources will become an important factor restricting Urumqi ecological and social- economic development. A correct understanding of the status of water resources development and utilization, Urumqi make an objective evaluation of the vulnerability of water resources, to ease the severe impact of the vulnerability of water resources for sustainable development of regional economic development, but also helps to protect regional water resources.This paper takes Urumqi as the research area, and evaluates the vulnerability of regional water resources. First in full consideration of the Urumqi city water resource vulnerability of influencing factors on the basis of construct Urumqi water resource vulnerability evaluation model; secondly the status from 2008 to 2011, Urumqi City Administrative Region vulnerability distribution were preliminary divided, and the city of Urumqi water resource vulnerability of interannual variations were analyzed. Finally, the paper puts forward the countermeasures to reduce water resource vulnerability. The main research contents are as follows:(1) respectively, in terms of nature, water resources, economic, social and environmental factors, screening Urumqi water resources assessment index, from natural fragile, vulnerable human vulnerability and carrying three areas to build water resources Urumqi contains 10 indicators brittleness evaluation index system and evaluation grade standards; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, gray relational analysis, fuzzy set pair analysis, fuzzy matter element four methods of administrative water Urumqi brittleness quantitatively evaluated. The results showed that: there is a certain vulnerability of water systems in general in Urumqi in 2011. Regional vulnerability degree than most in the middle vulnerability, vulnerability administrative region difference is not significant. Assessment Methods Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis found that evaluation results are more reliable and accurate.(2) Evaluation of the theory of fuzzy matter element analysis combined with Continental closeness degree, combined with Urumqi in 2005- 2011 the water supply and demand characteristics, the establishment of a Water Resources in vulnerability assessment index system and grading standards, quantitative analysis Urumqi long series of changes in the vulnerability of water resources. The results showed that: from 2005 to 2011, the city of Urumqi water resources has been a growing level of vulnerability to the planning year 2015 and 2020 the vulnerability of water resources will reach Ⅴ grade level state, the future of water resources in the city of Urumqi, the vulnerability is not optimistic.