Analysis Of The Full Impact Of Engineering Change Based On Matrix And Probability

Construction technology, mechanic equipment and materials used in construction projects during their construction process have been constantly bringing forth the new through the old. Policies and regulations related to construction projects have also been being continuously updated, even new documents issued. Environment conditions of project construction such as the natural often change and their information is difficult to accurately grasp. The objective uncertainty and subjective changes and failures both make engineering changes inevitable.Analyze the impact produced by the changes based on summing up the existing reasons of changes, and research methods and tools of them, as well as coping strategies. And the achievements are as follows:(1) Analyzed characteristics of inevitability, propagation and multi participation that engineering change possesses. Based on every work in the construction process of construction projects, clarified the mechanism of engineering change impact on three major objectives of project management. Established the concept of engineering change full impact analysis which takes into account the several objectives combined with both subjective and objective factors.(2) Put forward the basic idea which use impact degree value multiplied by impact probability to measure impact produced by engineering change; Constructed a variety of matrices that can intuitively and accurately express engineering change impact and are conducive to develop further research. Established change impact propagation tree that can clearly and iconically express possible paths of engineering change impact propagation and successively affected works on them.(3) Calculated the probability of change impact propagating along one path by using the probability principle of product event to; Solved the probability of change impact propagating along every possible path based on the probability principle of sum event. Solved the problem of determining the degree value of change impact propagating along every possible path through solving the average degree value of every possible propagation situations and analyzed and summarized the general formula for calculating the value.(4) Quantificationally analyzed the comprehensive impact produced by engineering change propagation; Quantificationally analyzed the full impact of engineering change by using the matrix multiplication which took into account the employer ’s different tilts to three major objectives; Verified the effectiveness of the method of analyzing the impacts through the practical application.In view of the problem that the existing research whether qualitat ive or single on the impact analysis of engineering change can not meet the employer ’s needs to achieve the overall target, put forward the method of accurately, comprehensively and reliably analyzing the engineering change impact, so as to provide the reference for employers to dynamically, timely and precisely manage and control engineering changes.