The Research Of Identifying Highway Accident Black Spots Based On Empirical Bayes Method

With the development of the expressway network construction,and the increasing of highway mileage of expressway,The danger of traffic accident arouse people’s attention increasingly. According to the characteristics of the expressway traffic accident, it is of great significance to research the methods of reducing accident danger, to identify black-spot where is less scale of road mileage, but on large scale traffic accident,and then we can take the corresponding improvement measures to improve the level of highway traffic safety.Based on comprehensive analysis of domestic and international identifying method,it was introduced that identifying method of highway accident black spots. This paper introduced the technical indicators’ advantages, disadvantages and suitable conditions of several kinds of typical accident black spot identification methods in detail, and to classify the identifying methods of accident black spots. This paper combined road alignment index and accumulation characteristics of traffic accident on the highway, it was put forward that the secondary road unit division method of combining road linear element method with dynamic clustering analysis method. On the base of secondary road unit division, this paper established highway accident black spot identification system based on the empirical Bayes method. First of all,Empirical Bayes method was introduced, it was set up that highway accident prediction model based on the thought of HSM, and it was used as a prior distribution; the prior distribution in combination with safety estimating of empirical Bayes method could achieve bayes posterior estimating value. The valve can truly reflect the safety status of highway safety, and with it into the quality control method can get the threshold value of black spots. According to the concept of security space can be improved, road Safety Index was put forward, based on sort of diagnosis and treatment of accident black spot. Finally, using the proposed approach combination related data of Xi ’an-Baoji bidirectional eight-lane highway, Case analysis on Xi ’an-Baoji highway was carried out to identify the black-spot. The results offer decision basis for the expressway management department.