Quantitative Safety Assessment For ATC Operation

With the rapid development of civil aviation, the major hub airports throughput designs become more and more saturated. Flight flow increases rapidly in airport terminal airspace. ATC operation environment is becoming more and more complex. Limited by the terminal airspace, flight flow often exists convergence or cross points, which could be lead to an accident. Therefore, there is a need of a scientific and quantitative approach to scientific safety assessment for terminal control area.According to the characteristics of aircraft operation in airport terminal area, this paper performed a series of simulation and analysis for cross points and convergence points in terminal area. This paper choose TOPAZ safety assessment framework and summarized evaluation process and key technologies for safety assessment. The paper also used the colored Petri for modeling the operation of aircraft in terminal area for its powerful modeling ability in complex system. According to the ATC environment of cross points and convergence points, this paper established conflict risk model of aircraft. That’s all for a newly putting forward method for ATC. Through the statistics and analysis of the historical data of aircraft flow in Shanghai terminal area, a random flight flow was generated which is used for simulation and analysis. Based on the quantitative safety assessment method and Monte Carlo simulation, aircraft operation conflict risk probability in cross points and convergence points can be calculated.