Research On The Model Of State Evaluation And Risk Assessment For Distribution Equipment

With the progress of the society, People have increased the demand for reliable power supply,to meet the high quality of power supply requirements, the size of the grid gradually expanded, the equipment gradually increased,subsequently, the operating risk of the device increased, threatening the safe and stable operation of the power grid. Therefore, it is necessary to establish science reasonable grid and the running state of the equipment evaluation and risk assessment model, risk pre control, enhance maintenance of targeted and effective, in order to guarantee the power system safe and stable operation.The project is based on a power supply bureau distribution network equipment(dry type transformer, switch cabinet, switch on the column, overhead line) as the object, through theoretical research and case analysis, the functional relationship of the health degree of various distribution network equipment and its influencing factors(state parameters) are studied; Based on the research of fuzzy evaluation and hierarchical variable weight theory, the model of distribution equipment state evaluation based on fuzzy variable weight analysis is explored,greatly improved the accuracy of the final evaluation results; Based on the empirical formula of common equipment failure probability, the optimal maintenance strategy is optimized to provide decision-making basis for setting the optimal maintenance strategy, and to achieve the purpose of avoiding risks, reducing risks and economic losses.