Research On Bidding Risk Assessment Of EPC Project Based On Variable Weight Fuzzy Model

In recent years,with the rapid development of China's construction industry,the EPC general contracting model has been widely applied and popularized due to its characteristics of clear power-responsibility relationship,conducive to improving the quality of engineering projects and reducing the cost of owner management.At the same time,the characteristics of the EPC general contracting mode also determine that there is a large uncertainty risk in the bidding stage,which puts forward higher requirements for the general contractor's bidding risk management ability.As a key step in bidding risk management,EPC project bidding risk evaluation plays an important role in making reasonable bidding risk decision and reducing the risk loss of bidding.However,at present,most of the general contractors in China still lack due attention to the evaluation process of EPC project bidding risk.The traditional constant weight evaluation model also has some problems,such as the influence of risk indicators is easy to be neutralized,and the evaluation results are distorted.Based on this,this paper takes the EPC project bid risk evaluation as the main research object,designs and constructs a variable weight fuzzy evaluation model for bidding risk of EPC project by comprehensively applying the relevant ideas and knowledge of EPC project bid risk management,fuzzy mathematics and variable weight theory.In order to improve the shortcomings of the traditional constant weight evaluation model and improve the authenticity and accuracy of the bidding risk evaluation results,provide assistance and reference for the general contractor to make scientific and reasonable bidding decisions and reduce the risk of bidding.This paper firstly analyzes the research background and research status of EPC project bid risk evaluation,points out the importance of EPC project bid risk evaluation,and expounds the bidding risk management theory,fuzzy mathematics theory and variable weight theory involved in EPC project bidding risk evaluation.Secondly,on the basis of the analysis and research of related literatures,the EPC project bid risk evaluation index system is established according to the construction ideas and construction principles of the EPC project bid risk evaluation index system.The evaluation index of EPC project bidding risk is divided into five categories: project factors,project external environment factors,contractor factors,owner factors and competition factors,totally 24 secondary indicators.Then,based on the constant weight determined by analytic hierarchy process(AHP),the variable weight formula is constructed by introducing the variable weight equilibrium function,and the constant weight is processed by variable weight.Combining with the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,a variable weight fuzzy evaluation model for bidding risk of EPC project is constructed.Finally,this paper combines the case to apply the bidding risk evaluation model to verify the applicability and feasibility of the model,and gives the corresponding bidding decision process and suggestions for the evaluation result design.The conclusion of this paper shows that the introduction of variable weight can objectively reflect the prominent risk factors' impact in the evaluation of EPC project bidding risk,and improve the accuracy of the evaluation results to a certain extent.At the same time,this study also provides a new research idea and theoretical reference for using the model to evaluate and analyze the bidding risk of EPC project.